Blogotariat

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Victorian and WA federal redistributions live

March 19, 2021 - 12:13 -- Admin

1:16pm – Here are the links to the maps at the AEC:

1:12pm – The AEC website is lacking the SA1-level data for Victoria which will prevent me from calculating vote shares and margins. If you find it, shout out.

12:58pm – I’m going to take a short break then be back with Victoria.

12:57pm – The main changes are in the Liberal seats of Pearce, Tangney and Durack, where the margin has shrunk by 2.3%, 1.9% and 1.3% respectively, and in Perth where Labor’s margin has shrunk by 1.7%.

12:56pm – And here is a comparison of the WA margins before and after the redistribution:

Seat
Old margin
New margin

Brand
ALP 6.7%
ALP 6.7%

Burt
ALP 5%
ALP 5.4%

Canning
LIB 11.6%
LIB 11.3%

Cowan
ALP 0.8%
ALP 0.9%

Curtin
LIB 14.3%
LIB 14%

Durack
LIB 14.8%
LIB 13.5%

Forrest
LIB 14.6%
LIB 14.6%

Fremantle
ALP 6.9%
ALP 6.9%

Hasluck
LIB 5.4%
LIB 5.9%

Moore
LIB 11.7%
LIB 11.6%

O’Connor
LIB 14.5%
LIB 15.4%

Pearce
LIB 7.5%
LIB 5.2%

Perth
ALP 4.9%
ALP 3.2%

Stirling
LIB 5.6%
Abolished

Swan
LIB 2.7%
LIB 3.2%

Tangney
LIB 11.5%
LIB 9.5%

12:49pm – Here’s my estimates of the vote share for each party in Western Australia’s 15 new electorates:

Seat
ALP 2PP
LNP 2PP
ALP prim
LNP prim
GRN prim

Brand
56.7
43.3
40.42
29.81
11.1

Burt
55.4
44.6
41.01
32.48
9.6

Canning
38.7
61.3
27.72
48.89
7.6

Cowan
50.9
49.1
37.85
40.02
11.1

Curtin
36.1
64.0
18.58
54.01
15.3

Durack
36.5
63.5
22.71
52.27
8.0

Forrest
35.4
64.6
21.26
52.47
12.7

Fremantle
56.9
43.1
38.02
34.97
16.0

Hasluck
44.1
55.9
30.34
44.15
10.8

Moore
38.4
61.6
24.74
51.52
12.1

O’Connor
34.6
65.4
20.61
55.6
8.2

Pearce
44.8
55.2
31.72
43.76
9.8

Perth
53.2
46.8
33.6
38.97
18.4

Swan
46.8
53.2
32.91
44.74
12.0

Tangney
40.5
59.5
27.93
51.34
10.9

12:23pm – I’ll go quiet for a bit now while I compile the data to calculate the margins.

12:22pm – Every seat in Western Australia will be redrawn. The AEC specifically mentioned the expansion of Pearce into rural areas further north.

12:21pm – The AEC has proposed to abolish the Western Australian seat of Stirling, and has changed the basis for the naming of the seat of Canning to include Sadie Miriam Canning, Western Australia’s first Indigenous nurse. The seat is already named after Alfred Canning, an early Australian surveyor. It’s not clear to me if there are links between the two.

Read the AEC media release.

12:17pm – A new Victorian seat of Hawke has been created, named after Bob Hawke.

29 out of 38 current Victorian electoral boundaries have been modified. I think this means that nine other seats have been left unchanged (although it’s possible they mean that 29 of the new seats are newly drawn, and ten left unchanged).

The seat of Corangamite has been renamed Tucker, after Margaret Tucker, a founding member of the Australian Aborigines League.

Read the AEC media release

12:13pm – The draft electoral boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia for the next federal redistribution have just been released. I’ll be liveblogging a summary of the changes as well as estimates of the vote share in the new electorates.

The new boundaries are required due to Victoria gaining a 39th electorate, and Western Australia losing one of their 16 electorates.