Blogotariat

Oz Blog News Commentary

NSW redistribution – draft map and margins

December 11, 2020 - 10:30 -- Admin

It’s taken some time, but I have now finalised my map of the New South Wales draft electoral boundaries for the 2023 and 2027 state elections.

The boundaries were released in early November and I blogged about them at the time, but it’s taken me until now to finish my Google Earth map, which has allowed me to produce the interactive map below.

Green lines represent the 2023 boundaries, while red lines represent the 2015-2019 boundaries. You can toggle each layer on and off.

I’ve published the full list of seat margin estimates below the fold, and you can download the Google Earth map from my maps page.

Most of the changes took place in the Sydney region, with seats outside that area changed less dramatically. The seat of Bankstown was effectively abolished, with the name transferred to the neighbouring seat of Lakemba, so the name “Lakemba” has been retired. This seat was replaced with Leppington in the south-west of Sydney.

About 561,000 enrolled voters, out of a total of 5.3 million, have been shifted into a new seat. That’s 10.55% of the total electorate. 32 out of 93 electorates either lost no voters or a tiny number of voters. 27 electorates did not gain voters. 14 seats had no significant change.

I estimate that seven seats changed their name. It’s worth mentioning Castle Hill: while the seat has retained its name I believe that Kellyville is a successor to the old seat of Castle Hill and the name Castle Hill is now applied to a seat which has primarily replaced Baulkham Hills. Both seats were dramatically redrawn.

The seats that have changed the most by margin are Auburn and Parramatta. Auburn has become 4.3% better for Labor, thanks to the removal of the suburbs around Sydney Olympic Park and the addition of South Granville. Parramatta then becomes 4.3% worse for its Liberal incumbent Geoff Lee, with the inclusion of those areas around Olympic Park and the loss of the northern end of his seat to Epping. Lee’s margin is cut from a comfortable 10.6% to a much tighter 6.3%.

Conveniently the NSW Electoral Commission publishes two-candidate-preferred counts at the booth level for all match-ups in each seat, which means I have to do a lot less guesswork in seats where the Greens made the top two. But there was still four seats which required some estimates.

In Cabramatta and Dubbo, where independents came second in 2019, I simply ignored the extra areas added to each seat. In Sydney, I chose to add in the Greens vs Coalition counts for the areas added from Heffron, Newtown and Port Macquarie as a proxy for Alex Greenwich, which increased his margin by 0.2% compared to what it would look like if I ignored those areas. A substantial part of Newtown around Surry Hills was moved into Sydney and I suspect those voters will be quite supportive of Greenwich, so it was worth trying to factor in that change.

The seat of Murray, won in 2019 by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, has gained the former Jerilderie council area from Albury, where the Shooters did not run. I have ignored those voters and thus the margin is unchanged.

I should also note that Antony Green and William Bowe did their own estimates at the time the boundaries were released. Antony covering the most interesting seats and William providing two-party-preferred figures. I don’t see much of a change between our models. The biggest change is in Oatley where I give the Liberal Party 0.7% more than Antony, in Heffron and Hawkesbury where I give the Liberal Party 0.7% more than William, and in Cootamundra where I give the Nationals 2.1% less than William. William also gives Labor 1.1% more in the new seat of Leppington.

Electorate
Old boundaries
New boundaries
Incumbent party

Albury
16.0
15.9
LIB vs ALP

Auburn
9.1
13.4
ALP vs LIB

Badgerys Creek (Mulgoa)
11.3
9.7
LIB vs ALP

Ballina
5.4
4.9
GRN vs NAT

Balmain
10.0
10.0
GRN vs ALP

Bankstown (abolished)
13.8
0.0
ALP vs LIB

Bankstown (Lakemba)
22.4
20.5
ALP vs LIB

Barwon
6.6
6.6
SFF vs NAT

Bathurst
17.9
17.9
NAT vs ALP

Bega
6.9
6.9
LIB vs ALP

Blacktown
17.7
16.6
ALP vs LIB

Blue Mountains
14.9
13.6
ALP vs LIB

Cabramatta
12.9
12.0
ALP vs IND

Camden
7.6
7.4
LIB vs ALP

Campbelltown
17.0
16.3
ALP vs LIB

Canterbury
13.0
15.6
ALP vs LIB

Castle Hill (Baulkham Hills)
18.7
22.4
LIB vs ALP

Cessnock
19.3
19.8
ALP vs NAT

Charlestown
12.4
13.0
ALP vs NAT

Clarence
14.5
14.5
NAT vs ALP

Coffs Harbour
10.8
10.8
NAT vs ALP

Coogee
1.6
2.1
ALP vs LIB

Cootamundra
27.1
24.5
NAT vs ALP

Cronulla
19.6
19.6
LIB vs ALP

Drummoyne
15.0
13.7
LIB vs ALP

Dubbo
2.0
2.0
NAT vs IND

East Hills
0.5
0.1
LIB vs ALP

Epping
12.4
10.9
LIB vs ALP

Fairfield
17.9
16.6
ALP vs LIB

Gosford
7.3
7.1
ALP vs LIB

Goulburn
3.5
3.1
LIB vs ALP

Granville
7.6
8.8
ALP vs LIB

Hawkesbury
17.5
17.0
LIB vs ALP

Heathcote
5.0
2.1
ALP vs LIB

Heffron
15.1
15.0
ALP vs LIB

Holsworthy
3.3
6.2
LIB vs ALP

Hornsby
16.3
16.8
LIB vs ALP

Keira
19.7
18.3
ALP vs LIB

Kellyville (Castle Hill)
24.7
23.0
LIB vs ALP

Kiama
12.0
12.0
LIB vs ALP

Kogarah
1.8
0.3
ALP vs LIB

Lake Macquarie
22.1
23.4
IND vs ALP

Lane Cove
14.3
14.7
LIB vs ALP

Leppington (New seat)
0.0
1.5
ALP vs LIB

Lismore
1.3
1.8
ALP vs NAT

Liverpool
16.7
17.6
ALP vs NAT

Londonderry
6.5
3.9
ALP vs LIB

Macquarie Fields
14.8
14.8
ALP vs LIB

Maitland
13.2
14.7
ALP vs LIB

Manly
12.9
13.1
LIB vs GRN

Maroubra
8.5
8.4
ALP vs LIB

Miranda
14.6
14.2
LIB vs ALP

Monaro
11.6
11.6
NAT vs ALP

Mount Druitt
16.4
18.2
ALP vs LIB

Murray
3.5
3.5
SFF vs NAT

Myall Lakes
9.2
9.2
NAT vs ALP

Newcastle
17.7
17.6
ALP vs LIB

Newtown
13.8
11.5
GRN vs ALP

North Shore
11.1
11.1
LIB vs IND

Northern Tablelands
32.8
33.3
NAT vs ALP

Oatley
10.5
7.4
LIB vs ALP

Orange
15.2
15.2
SFF vs NAT

Oxley
14.9
15.4
NAT vs ALP

Parramatta
10.6
6.3
LIB vs ALP

Penrith
1.3
0.8
LIB vs ALP

Pittwater
22.4
22.4
LIB vs ALP

Port Macquarie
20.3
20.1
NAT vs ALP

Port Stephens
5.8
5.8
ALP vs LIB

Prospect
10.7
8.8
ALP vs LIB

Riverstone
6.3
6.2
LIB vs ALP

Rockdale
9.5
10.0
ALP vs LIB

Ryde
9.0
9.0
LIB vs ALP

Shellharbour
18.3
18.6
ALP vs LIB

South Coast
10.6
10.6
LIB vs ALP

St Ives (Davidson)
25.5
24.7
LIB vs ALP

Strathfield
5.0
5.3
ALP vs LIB

Summer Hill
16.5
17.1
ALP vs GRN

Swansea
10.6
10.6
ALP vs LIB

Sydney
11.8
13.4
IND vs LIB

Tamworth
29.5
27.9
NAT vs ALP

Terrigal
12.3
12.3
LIB vs ALP

The Entrance
5.2
5.3
ALP vs LIB

Tweed
5.0
5.0
NAT vs ALP

Upper Hunter
2.6
0.6
ALP vs NAT

Vaucluse
19.3
19.7
LIB vs GRN

Wagga Wagga
15.5
15.5
IND vs NAT

Wahroonga (Ku-ring-gai)
20.5
19.1
LIB vs ALP

Wakehurst
21.0
21.8
LIB vs ALP

Wallsend
25.4
25.9
ALP vs LIB

Willoughby
21.0
20.7
LIB vs ALP

Winston Hills (Seven Hills)
6.4
5.4
LIB vs ALP

Wollondilly
13.8
14.2
LIB vs ALP

Wollongong
21.4
22.4
ALP vs LIB

Wyong
12.4
12.8
ALP vs LIB