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Two polls, but both still show a wipe-out

April 8, 2019 - 12:56 -- Admin

There are two polls out today,
one showing good news for the government, the other showing bad news for the
government. How can this be the case? It’s all in the different methodologies
used by the respective pollsters and a statistical item called the ‘margin of
error’.

Newspoll, published by The Australian, shows increase in
support for the Liberal–National Party to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred
basis (up 2 per cent from March 7), which means a decrease for the Labor Party
to 52 per cent.

On the other hand, the monthly
Ipsos poll published in the Sydney
Morning Herald
, shows a widening of the polls, 47 per cent of the two-party
preferred vote to the LNP, and 53 per cent to the Labor Party.

The Mediapoll aggregation from all pollsters is 47.7 per cent for the LNP, and 52.3 per cent for the Labor Party. There has been a very slow tightening of the polls since August 2018, when Malcolm Turnbull was deposed as Prime Minister, but even if that trajectory continues, with all other issues being equal, it will only reach 47.1 per cent at the time of the election, which is due on either May 11 or May 18 this year.

However, whichever poll or
metric is used, the Government is still facing a landslide defeat, if these
poll numbers continue.

The lowest two-party preferred
vote to win a federal election is the 49.0 per cent achieved by the
Liberal–National Coalition in 1998, followed by the 49.3 per cent result in the
1940 election, also achieved by the Coalition.

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An election victory with a
two-party preferred vote of less than 50 per cent has only occurred on five
occasions in federation in 1901. Four of these have been by the Coalition, with
the last occasion being in 1998, and once by the Labor Party in 1990. And on
all of those occasions, a government has been returned from a position of
strength (albeit with a fall in votes), while the current LNP Coalition is
coming from a position of weakness, holding minority government since November
2018.

Election Date

ALP

Coalition

ALP seats

Coalition seats

21
September 1940

50.3%

49.7%
3236
29 May
1954

50.7%

49.3%
5764
25 October
1969

50.2%

49.8%
5966
24 March
1990

49.9%

50.1%
7869
3 October
1998

51.0%

49.0%
6780

Graph: Winning elections with less than 50 per cent of two-party
preferred vote.

The upshot is: this Government will need to break many electoral records and overturn historical precedents if it is to be returned for a third term. Based on the 168 consecutive losing polls for the LNP since August 2016, it’s difficult to see where an advantage could be for the Government to turn these figures around.

While The Australian has argued the recent boost in the Newspoll numbers for the Coalition is all due to the electorate’s favourable response to the 2019 Budget, budget announcements don’t have the same impact they’ve had in previous decades, and any influence on polling figures, if any, takes weeks to advance.

Optimists for the LNP can point
to the ‘Kinnock Principle’, where UK Labour opposition leader lead the polls
for over 18 months, up to the polling date in 1992. The Conservative Party had
ousted Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister in the previous year, and Labour was
expected to win. But new Prime Minister John Major managed to hold on to
government, losing only 40 of its 359 seats and keeping a majority of 21 seats.

However, British elections are based on a ‘first-past-the-post’ system, and polling has become a more exact science since 1992. Of course, the cliche of polling is there’s only one poll that counts, and that’s the election itself. But the almost three years of negative polls for the Coalition is unlikely to change within a 33-day campaign, especially if the electorate has already made a decision on the performance of the incumbent government.

Governments seeking re-election always have the two-fold difficulty where they are not only being assessed on what they can offer the electorate in the future, but their ability to deliver future prospects based on how well they have delivered in the past. And the record of dysfunction since the Coalition was first elected in September 2013 is there for the electorate to see. It’s difficult to ignore the evidence.

Based on these polling figures
from Newspoll and Ipsos, and assuming a uniform swing, Labor would win an
election, picking up between 10–18 seats, and winning between 81–90 of the 151
seats available.