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The Tally Room Saturday, May 4, 2024 - 18:00 Source

6:58 – We have the first two booths from Hobart and the Greens candidate Cassy O’Connor has a big lead with 39.5%, ahead of Labor on 18.3% and independent Charlie Burton on 16.8%. Good start for her.

6:57 – We now have six booths reporting in Elwick, and independent mayor Bec Thomas is leading with 30.5%, with Labor’s Tessa McLaughlin on 28.2%. Definitely still too close to call.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 4, 2024 - 09:54 Source

DXY sagged Friday night: AUD is still caught in a neutral wedge but momentum is higher: CFTC shorts got shot: JPY shorts got shot: Normally, gold would be lifting and oil rising. Not in this upside down world: Dirt did OK: And miners: EM is breaking out: Junk is giving the all-clear: Yields fell: Lifting

The post Australian dollar bear hunting season opens appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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New Politics Saturday, May 4, 2024 - 07:55 Source

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 4, 2024 - 00:15 Source

At last, MB is not alone in telling the truth. It began earlier this week with the nation’s leading macro team, led by the excellent Gareth Aird at CBA. when he wrote: …incredibly strong net overseas immigration has put upward pressure on some components of the CPI basket. This has made the RBA’s task of

The post Economists revolt against Albo’s immigration lunacy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 4, 2024 - 00:10 Source

The latest mortgage finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), released on Friday, debunked the notion that Australia’s property market is suffering an investor “exodus”. The value of investor mortgage commitments increased by 31.1% in the year to March. This easily outpaced the 11.4% growth that owner-occupiers reported. The following chart shows the

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MacroBusiness Saturday, May 4, 2024 - 00:05 Source

International Reads: Jerome Powell has had it with the 1970s talk, saying he doesn’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘-flation’ investors are worried about – Fortune The surprising reason few Americans are getting chips jobs now.  – Washington Post Wall Street Has Spent Billions Buying Homes. A Crackdown Is Looming. – WSJ Media outlets are

The post Weekend reading and MB media appearances appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 17:00 Source

With the FOMC meeting absorbed all eyes are now on the latest US jobs report tonight with the bounce in tech shares on Wall Street possibly not enough to stave off a general risk off mood. Several major share markets were closed in Asia today so the lead didn’t really matter with local stocks still

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 15:25 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 15:08 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 14:52 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 14:51 Source
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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 14:30 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 14:00 Source

Independent economist Tony Alexander believes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has gone too far with its monetary tightening and has driven a sharp rise in unemployment. I argued similarly on Wednesday. Below is Tony Alexander’s report on the latest labour market figures. Labour market weakens The main data focus this week for those

The post Reserve Bank “failure” rains job losses appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 13:30 Source

In an interview with Sky News’ Danica De Giorgio, I explain why the latest collapse in retail sales means that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be highly reluctant to lift interest rates further. Edited Transcript: A week ago, all the talk was about the higher-than-expected inflation figure, which could potentially lead to another

The post Stretched Aussies pull handbrake on spending appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 13:00 Source

Albert Edwards of Societe General. Not much shocks me in the world of economics and finance nowadays, but the latest IMF report on the US fiscal situation stunned me into momentary silence. Having dusted myself down and digested the report more fully,I thought I would pen some thoughts about where we may be heading over

The post Albert Edwards describes the great debt endgame appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 12:30 Source

Australia’s international trade in goods position weakened in March, reaching a three-year low of $5.0bn, below the market’s median expectation of $7.3bn. The narrowing surplus was driven by a 4.2% gain in imports. Export earnings rose 0.1% in March, with rural goods being 2.8% higher. However, a more than 5% drop in commodity prices impacted

The post Australia’s China dependence shrinks despite Albo cringe appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 12:01 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 12:00 Source

Former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr plans to sue New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters over controversial remarks made on radio during a recent debate over the Advanced Nuclear Weapons Enhanced Cooperation (AUKUS) pact. Peters was interviewed about New Zealand’s position on AUKUS and accused Carr of closeness with China. The comments were not

The post Bob Carr sues Winston Peters over China appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 11:37 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 11:30 Source

Say what you will about Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. However, Pauline Hanson’s Please Explain is the best political satire in the country. In the latest instalment, Please Explain argues that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is addicted to immigration. Immigration Junkies | Pauline Hanson’s Please Explain Admitting you have a problem is the first step to

The post Open borders Albo is addicted to immigration appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 11:00 Source

I have argued repeatedly that the official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) unemployment rate of 3.8% flies in the face of broader labour market data and the per capita recession afflicting the economy. Most notable among these is the surge in the number of applicants per job ad recorded by Seek, which historically would correspond

The post Another jobs leading indicator turns sour appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 10:30 Source

The Albanese government has set a five-year goal of building 1.2 million homes, commencing on July 1 of this year. To reach this goal, Australia needs to build 60,000 homes per quarter, or 240,000 dwellings every year for five years in a row. The following chart compares Labor’s housing target with Australia’s historical dwelling completions:

The post Australian home builders kneecapped by hyperinflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Friday, May 3, 2024 - 10:21 Source

Monash University Media Release The spotlight is yet again shining on the national crisis of violence against women in Australia, and the calls for increased action and improved responses to all forms of domestic, family and sexual violence has intensified over the last three weeks.  With the need for a perpetrator register or a disclosure…

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 10:00 Source

By Stephen Saunders Albanese’s population and environment policies riff on UN policy. His Made in Australia launch seems to propose a similar template for industry. For an arid continent in the far south seas, it’s a staggering policy distortion. There were probably one million migrants, net, in two years of government. This is about 350,000

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xkcd.com Friday, May 3, 2024 - 10:00 Source

The company tried to document how often employees were celebrating Software Testing Day, but their recordkeeping system kept mysteriously crashing.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 09:30 Source

DXY is fading again: AUD firmed gain: JPY shorts are getting squeezed: The oil headfake is over: Taking down metals: Miners eked out gins with stocks: EM is poised for breakout: Junk is stabilising: Yields rolled”: Giving life to stocks: A sequence of events has taken the wind out of the “no landing” panic sails

The post Australian dollar rebounds as “no landing” evaporates appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 09:00 Source

US markets rebounded on late tech earnings and an expected lift in factory orders, with European shares returning from their mid week holiday under the fear that a June ECB rate cut may not be on the cards. The USD remains somewhat muted with Euro and Pound Sterling lifting overnight while the recent interventions in

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 08:35 Source
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MacroBusiness Friday, May 3, 2024 - 08:30 Source

The PBOC first quarter survey is a doozy. Below is a summary of the main conclusions I drew from the surveys. According to PBOC bankers’ poll, loan demand increased in the first quarter, and banks anticipate more supportive monetary policy in the following one. The Q1 2024 business conditions worsened, according to a study of

The post 1.4 billion Chinese scream in unison “sell property” appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Friday, May 3, 2024 - 08:29 Source
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