Here we go. It looks like we are starting the period which will give us a feel for whether Rudd will win the next election (something that, surprisingly, everyone seems to be already so clear about, especially given the confusion over the last one).
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Rick Shenkman asks just how stupid and ignorant are his fellow Americans. Whilst Shenkman unveils a few embarrassing stats demonstrating that US citizens are far more knowledgeable about pop culture than world affairs, I suspect his argument doesn't fly. The picture he paints is not clear evidence of ignorance, still less, stupidity, (though frustrated agitators may interpret it as such). Read more »
Newspoll shows a Narrowing(TM) to 55-45 [PDF poll data]. The usual wisdom from Shanahan notes the downsides for Labor but doesn’t make much of the fact that Nelson is stagnant. As always, discussion at The Poll Bludger. Read more »
Morgan’s latest shows the 2PP at 61-39. Discussion at The Poll Bludger, where BillBowe also has a breakdown of the results in a poll by Essential Research (59-41).
Brendan - it’s time. Read more »
It’s getting a bit tedious writing posts like this, but perhaps there’s a continued need to do so. The cumulative Newspoll for the first six months of the year across all states (and with a demographic breakdown) is out [table in pdf form], and poor old Dennis Shanahan is reduced to writing things like: Read more »
Well, say what you like about his journalistic ethics and standards, you have to give Andrew Bolt some credit for his truth telling. Who knew that among the coal miners, small business people, pensioners, farmers and working families of Gippsland, the most important swinging voters resident in the seat were… journalists! In their thousands, presumably. Read more »
It’d be interesting to go back and trace the first appearance of the “Kevin Rudd will be a one term PM” narrative - I suspect it coincided with about the fifth round of declarations that “the honeymoon is over”. Lyn at Public Opinion helpfully summarises today’s MSM commentary so we don’t have to read it: Read more »
The “media narrative” we’ve seen the first taste of today in the wake of the Gippsland by-election couldn’t be more predictable. Brendan Nelson’s contributed a theme of his own - that polls aren’t as meaningful as the “only poll that counts” - an election, or in this case a by-election. Read more »
I'm reluctant to place too much faith in polls purporting to represent anything as abstruse as 'world opinion', but I've been forwarded a few interesting ones lately that I feel are worth sharing.
Firstly, one poll showed that in 17 of 18 nations surveyed, a majority of participants opposed the criminalisation of abortion. (The exception was Indonesia). This poll included countries whose current laws criminal abortion: Read more »
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