Liberal Party

Betting Market Friday

Pollytics - March 12, 2010 - 9:22am

There was some interesting behaviour this week in the markets with Centerbet, IASbet and Sportingbet all having a nap, while Betfair had a small move towards Labor and Sportsbet went berko!

weeklychangemar12

The “Any Other Party” on Sportsbet (read “Coalition”) moved from $3.80 to a whopping $4.70, while Labor pulled in to $1.18, down from its $1.25 last Friday.

Sportsbet has opened up the range of implied probabilities for a Labor victory to a substantially large 7.6% across the 5 agencies, with Centerbet having Labor on a 72.3% win probability and Sportsbet coming in at the other end of the spectrum on a 79.9% implied probability. Read more »

Are confident consumers good for the government?

Pollytics - March 9, 2010 - 12:06pm

This is an expanded version of something I wrote for the Crikey daily mail last week.

Does increasing consumer confidence boost the government vote? Orthodox wisdom would have us “yes” – good consumers are good government voters. If people are happy with their economic lot, if they’re happy with their economic expectations about the future, then they will – so the theory goes – reward the government for overseeing a fortuitous economic environment that boosts prosperity and their material well being.

However, the actual answer is somewhat different. Once upon a time there was indeed a strong relationship between consumer confidence and government political stocks -back in the boom/bust of the late 80’s and into the 1990’s recession period – and that probably explains why this myth is so enduring.

But a myth it generally is – at least in terms of the strength of the relationship – as we shall see. Read more »

Nielsen Part 1 – The Vote Estimates

Pollytics - March 8, 2010 - 8:02am

Today’s Nielsen via the Fairfax press has the Coalition up 1 on the primaries and Labor steady to come in at 42/42, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 to Labor – a one point gain to the Coalition since last month. The Greens are on 9 (down 1) while the broad “Others” are on 5 (down 2). This comes from a sample of 1400, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark. You can see the full demographic tables here.

We’re going to do something a bit different today and look at approval ratings, preferred PM and win expectations by party vote. To start with, approval ratings for both Rudd and Abbott.

ruddapproval1 Read more »

Essential Report – leader attributes

Pollytics - March 1, 2010 - 5:16pm

This week’s Essential Report has the primaries running 42 (down 1)/ 40 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 the same way – a one point gain to the Coalition since last week’s poll. The Greens are on 9 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are steady on 9. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1816, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

This is the lowest ALP vote estimate that Essential has produced to date.

Additional questions this week are on attribute rating for Rudd and Abbott, population size and the private health insurance rebate means testing proposed by Labor. These additional questions run off a sample of 1009, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark. Read more »

Betting Market Friday

Pollytics - February 26, 2010 - 7:33am

Another Friday, another sweep around the betting markets for the looming Federal Election. Over the past week, the ALP prices offered by our five agencies changed from “not at all” through to increasing by 7 cents. On the Coalition side of the equation, the change over the last week was between zero and a 20 cent reduction in the offered prices:

7daychange

For all the noise over Garrett, the average increase in the probability of a Coalition victory over the last week was less than 1%.I guess the punters were far less excited over it’s consequences than was the Abbotariat in the paramilitary opinion wing of The Oz. The individual probabilities for the five agencies on our watch list come in like this: Read more »

Essential Report – National Curriculum Edition

Pollytics - March 9, 2010 - 5:05pm

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 1)/ 40 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a one point gain to Labor since last week. The Greens and the broad “Others” are steady on 9 a piece. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1889, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

Additional questions this week covered which level of government the public believes should be responsible for an array of issues, perceptions of gender wage differentials in the workplace, why people vote the way they do at both State and Fed elections, as well as public opinion on Rudd’s national curriculum.

These additional questions ran off a sample of 1129, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Do you think the following services should be mainly the responsibility of the Federal Government or State Governments? Read more »

Abbott’s parental leave non-policy

Larvatus Prodeo - March 8, 2010 - 9:16pm

Tony Abbott has chosen to mark International Women’s Day which is, to his mind, of course, all about “benefits… provided to families with children”, by announcing a policy for six months’ paid parental leave at actual salary levels, funded by a levy on big business.

Or has he?

That’s the impression given on the tv news tonight, but a reading of Abbott’s actual speech shows that it’s not a policy announcement.

Rather, Abbott is determined to show that a Liberal government would:

let people know what it has in mind well before positions are finalized because the job of government is to make the best decisions, not to pretend to have all the answers from the beginning. Read more »

Newspoll – not quite whacking day

Pollytics - March 2, 2010 - 7:22am

Via The Oz, this fortnight’s Newpoll comes in with the primaries running 41/40 to the Coalition (a one point increase for both), washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 for Labor – a one point gain to the Coalition. The Greens are on 9 (down 3), while the broad “Others” are on 10 (up 1). This comes from a sample of 1162, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark.

Whacking Day never quite arrived this poll for Rudd – although one could argue that Rudd has been getting whacked for 4 months now. I’d imagine Labor Party types are now regretting gifting Abbott a free ride over the Christmas period. Read more »

Unions and Labor: is Dean Mighell right?

Left Focus - February 28, 2010 - 11:40am
ACTU_protest_20051115.jpg

above: A union protest against the draconian industrial laws of the former Australian Howard Conservative government.

Read more »

nb: what follows is a response to a call from unionist Dean Mighell for unions to disaffiliate 'en masse' from the Australian Labor Party.  Also considered is the future of parties of the relative right in Australia, and the need to contest the 'common sense' of Australian politics...

Open Tasmanian election thread

Larvatus Prodeo - February 24, 2010 - 2:10pm

This thread provides an opportunity for commenters to discuss the Tasmanian election, share links, make predictions, and so forth!

As a discussion starter, The Poll Bludger has posted a couple of interesting items on the campaign so far; a wrap of the first week, and, intriguingly, the results of an EMRS poll showing the Liberals leading Labor 39-31, but with The Greens soaring to 27%.

Please note LP’s statement on electoral comment.