reserve bank

Expect to hear less about prices, rates out of control

Peter Martin - July 29, 2010 - 12:13pm
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Low inflation has knocked the stuffing out of the debt/deficit/doom campaign

Julia Gillard will go the polls with the ultimate economic double -- both falling inflation and falling unemployment after a surprise dive in inflation removed the prospect of higher mortgage rates in the lead-up to the election.

The Reserve Bank board meeting will vote to leave interest rates on hold Tuesday after the closely-watched underlying rate of inflation slid to 2.7 per cent, the first time it has been below 3 per cent and within the Bank's target band for three years. Read more »

Cruisin' with the Gov

Peter Martin - July 22, 2010 - 5:02pm

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Governor Glenn Stevens, here - audio that you can read along with, thanks to the wonderful work of the Reserve Bank.

Listen especially for the first question, and the laughter that precedes his answer.


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. The Gov spells it out - these are the things that will make me push up rates on August 3

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Swan, Gillard in the dark... from 6.00 pm

Peter Martin - July 19, 2010 - 12:04pm
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For five weeks our public service will serve us, not them

From the moment government enters caretaker mode at 6.00 pm eastern time today our economic landscape will be beyond the power of politicians to influence.

The Reserve Bank board will consider interest rates two weeks from tomorrow with Treasury Secretary Ken Henry in attendance. But in a reversal of the usual procedure Dr Henry will nether discuss the decision with his Treasurer nor seek the Mr Swan's view as to how he should vote. Read more »

Wait 30 seconds, find a new job. What could be wrong with that?

Peter Martin - June 11, 2010 - 11:50am
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By the way it's a shortage of people, not capital, that will hold back the mining industry

Australia is creating new jobs at the breathtaking pace of one every 30 seconds, piling on an extra 140,000 in the first five months of this year, confirming talk of a "V-shaped" recovery and driving unemployment down to the interest-rate sensitive zone of 5 per cent. Read more »

The index is going up - rates might too

Peter Martin - July 22, 2010 - 5:19pm
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Whoever wins the election will inherit an economy growing at well above its sustainable rate, making further interest rate rises inevitable according to the latest Westpac Melbourne Institute leading economic index.

The index purports to predict economic growth three to nine months into the future. It came in at 6.7 per cent in May, down from April's 7.5 per cent but still way in excess of Reserve Bank's view of a sustainable rate, believed to be about 3.25 per cent.

Driving the growth are improving international conditions and near-record minerals prices, but so extreme is the prediction that Westpac's chief economist says he doesn't fully believe it. Read more »

The Gov spells it out - these are the things that will make me push up rates on August 3

Peter Martin - July 21, 2010 - 10:41am
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And he doesn't think much of Tony Abbott's economics - more on that below

The Reserve Bank has prepared the way for a extraordinary mid-campaign rate hike, spelling out in unprecedented detail the triggers that will make it move when its board next meets in 13 days time.

The board's minutes - released as the Coalition declared interest rates central to its campaign - for the first time include a staff forecast of the inflation rate the Bank expects when the official figures are released next Wednesday and say if it is not met a hike is on the cards. Read more »

McKibbin: "He can't believe it's better to have a bad policy that everyone agrees with than a good one"

Peter Martin - June 23, 2010 - 11:31am
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The policy economist par excellence hits back:

One of Australia's leading academic economists and a member of the Reserve Bank board has taken on Treasury boss Secretary Ken Henry accusing him of failing to consult experts while trying to silence them.

Warwick McKibbin, director the Australian National University's Research School of Economics said he was stunned by a call from Ken Henry on Monday for academics to "put down their weapons" rather than nitpick over government proposals such at the emissions trading scheme. Read more »