GDP: This is the third quarter of sub 2.5 per cent annual growth.
I have been thinking about business cycles lately, and the degree to which I think Australia might be at risk of a recession over the next 12 months (about which I am still thinking - and will hopefully blog soonish).Anyway, I decided to explore the extent to which different classes of expenditure contribute to GDP(E) over time.
Today's national accounts left me a little unimpressed. Let's look at some of the expenditure-volume measures. The chart that particularly caught my eye was two quarters of negative growth in real Gross National Expenditure. But it was not the only expenditure-volume chart that left me flat. Domestic final demand is in the doldrums. As is private gross fixed capital formation. Even growth in household final consumption expenditure is weak by historical standards.
First the obligatory, “less than analysists” expected sentence.
OK. Now onto the data.
Yep, the ABS in the midst of the quarterly economic nerd week, released the national accounts today. Growth was below trend. Even trend growth was below trend.
Where do we find ourselves? Well first let’s look at the quarterly growth picture:
The base chart:
Another set of charts from the Q3-2012 National Accounts:
Just wondering about the fall-off in national savings ...