At Australian Policy Online, Swinburne Politics Professor Brian Costar writes about how the press got the Gippsland by-election (and the state by-election for Kororoit in Victoria) so wrong:

We are told that the Rudd government is “reeling” from the “backlash” it suffered in Gippsland, where it took a “savage swing of 6.5 per cent.” The reaction to the Kororoit result has gone even further – some accounts would have us believe that the Brumby Labor government is set for certain defeat in 2010.

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Well, say what you like about his journalistic ethics and standards, you have to give Andrew Bolt some credit for his truth telling. Who knew that among the coal miners, small business people, pensioners, farmers and working families of Gippsland, the most important swinging voters resident in the seat were… journalists! In their thousands, presumably. Read more »

The night before...

'Oh the ALP are still enjoying a honeymoon. They have it in the bag. You will see. The media is in love with Rudd. They aren't turning the blow torch on him because they want to marry him. Have a big wedding with Rudd all in white, and 200 Press Gallery people - except for the wise news limited types of course because they've been steadfastly objective with their weekly predictions the honeymoon is over - in tuxedos then off on government transport for a big honeymoon of Rudd love. Wait and see.'

The election goes to the coalition. Swing against the government of 7%

The night before... Read more »

The polls are open in Gippsland in a by-election being conducted to replace Nationals MP Peter McGauran. The papers are full of the expectations game, unsurprisingly. Read more »