Paul Krugman recently posted on predictions of the crisis before it happened, in a piece entitled “Non-prophet Economics”. It had a set of propositions about how one should evaluate such claims with which I completely and utterly agree. I’ll quote it in its entirety, because it’s an eminently suitable starting point for evaluating whether a prediction was in fact made:
Articles from A Senex View
New Modern Money and Public Purpose Seminar at Sydney University this Friday afternoon (Australian Eastern time), with Bill Mitchell, Sean Carmody, and Peter Kriesler, on
“Macroeconomic Policy Making in Small, Open Economies: An Australian Perspective”.
More details here: