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Booth map of the day: the ACT

June 17, 2022 - 10:00 -- Admin

Today I’m looking at booth results across the ACT. I’m starting with a two-candidate-preferred map, but probably the Senate race is more interesting, where independent candidate David Pocock polled over 20% and knocked out Liberal senator Zed Seselja.

Starting with the two-candidate-preferred vote, it’s worth noting that the count in Canberra (the central seat) is Labor vs Greens, while the other two seats are Labor vs Liberal. It can be hard to tell because Labor won every booth. Labor’s weakest area is the inner north, where they polled below 60% in most booths.

The next layer shows who won each booth in the Senate race. Labor won almost everywhere, with the Liberals topping the primary vote in a handful of booths in Tuggeranong, Gungahlin and the inner south, and the Greens also topped the city booth for two of three seats. While Labor won most booths, they won it off quite a low vote. I can’t see a single booth where the top-polling party cracked 40%.

The next four layers show the Senate primary vote for Labor, Liberal, Greens and David Pocock.

Labor’s vote was mostly strongest in Belconnen, Gungahlin and the inner north, but was fairly even across the territory.

The Liberal primary vote was highest in Tuggeranong and Gungahlin, regularly cracking 30%, while the Liberal primary vote across most of the inner north was barely in the low teens.

Pocock’s vote was strong in the seat of Canberra, which is unsurprising, but he tended to do better in the south than the north.

The Greens vote was badly reduced thanks to Pocock’s candidacy, but they still polled well into the teens in the inner north, and did better in the outer north than the outer south.

I decided to compare the House and Senate vote to see how much Pocock’s support matched areas of support for the Greens, but found very little relationship. I did find a stronger relationship with Labor’s primary vote.

Actually, though, I want to compare the combined progressive House vote to Pocock, to get a sense of how much of his support has been drawn from the left. We don’t have two-party-preferred data for Canberra, but I compared Pocock’s Senate vote to the combined House vote for Labor and the Greens, and there is some relationship here.

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The correlation becomes much weaker if you remove Norfolk Island, a small booth where independent Jamie Christie topped the House primary vote and Kim Rubenstein topped the Senate primary vote.

While this chart does suggest Pocock did better in more progressive parts of Canberra, he also picked up a lot of support in more Liberal areas, consistent with the idea that he also needed to peel away Liberal votes to defeat Seselja.