Oz Blog News Commentary

The seats to watch in the SA election

March 18, 2022 - 11:00 -- Admin

In the lead up to Saturday’s election, I thought I would run through seats worth watching.

If you look at the pendulum, there are a handful of seats with slim margins.

The Liberal Party holds four seats by a slim margin. The Liberal margins in King, Adelaide and Elder are between 0.7% and 2.1%. The seat of Newland is held by a Liberal MP, but my redistribution calculations flipped the seat to a 0.3% margin for Labor.

Labor holds Mawson by a 0.7% margin, and Wright by 3.1%.

There are also a number of seats contested by independent MPs.

Newland, mentioned above as a very marginal Liberal vs Labor seat, is being contested by independent MP Frances Bedford, whose seat of Florey has been redrawn into a new area.

Independent MP Geoff Brock has jumped from his seat of Frome to the neighbouring Liberal seat of Stuart, following a majority of Frome voters in the Port Pirie area who vote strongly for Brock, so much that I’ve defined Stuart as a notional independent seat.

I’m sure there will be other seats that pop up on Saturday night but I think most interest will be in these races.