Believe the opinion polls and the punters would have the choices in the UK's Brexit referendum at even money take your pick. For several weeks now there has been nothing between stay and leave in the measurements of public opinion. If anything, leave is ever so slightly in front.
Articles from Political Owl
The political speculator's diary: Strange gap between polls and betting markets: An interesting tweet this morning showing how the betting odds on the federal election have been fluctuating. Probability of a Coalit...
Michelle Grattan, University of CanberraLabor is heaving a sigh of relief after Malcolm Turnbull’s announcement that the Liberals will put the Greens below Labor everywhere.In particular, the embattled Labor MP for Batman, David Feeney, under serious threat from the Greens, has been given extra life support, although it remains to be se
A Green version of all care but no responsibility - promises you will never be in a position to fulfil
I'm not sure which is more annoying: attempts to analyse opinion polls showing markedly different results or pontifications about the future impact of policies that will never pass through the Senate. The Saturday papers are full of both of them.I'll settle once again for quoting Paul Kelly. He gives this common sense advice in The Australian this morning:
The Treasurer decales war.
It's unusual to find a real insider giving some thoughts on an election campaign but this year we have one.
The worm probably would not have moved much from its neutral 50:50 position but I missed it nevertheless. Tonight's debate between leaders Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten was a rather bland and predictable affair. A little audience measurement in the style of the Nine Network's worm as used in previous years might have brightened things up a little.For my part I learned little except that the incumbent and the challenger are respectful opponents.