Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from Political Owl

Even expert forecasters often treat a strong possibility as though it is a certainty.

November 27, 2016 - 14:01 -- Admin

Why forecasters failed to predict Trump’s victory: Tim Harford in London's Financial Times"The truth is that once Trump had secured the nomination, a Trump presidency was always a strong possibility. The betting markets seemed to recognise this, offering odds of three-to-one a week or so before the poll.

The Presidential election result: H.L.Mencken saw it coming

November 9, 2016 - 23:16 -- Admin

I give up. I do not understand people. I spent the day listening in disbelief as the votes were counted.How can this be? Perhaps H.L. Mencken got it right when he wrote:“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”