Diverting for a moment from Tasmanian politics, to WA which is the next state to hold an election. (WA sometime before May 2009. NT is due in October this year so may be first, although I expect WA to be sooner rather than later - see below).
I imagine readers here by now would have heard of Liberal opposition leader Tony Buswell's chair sniffing escapade. As the politics and mechanics of winning from opposition are a special interest of mine, I offer the following observations:
First, Buswell's political career is over. Some scandals are survivable for politicians (eg. Latham and breaking arms or Rudd and pole dancing) and some are not. There is a line and once it is crossed there is no going back. Exactly where the line is and how it is defined is difficult to say for certain. The criteria are movable and fickle, and seem to vary depending on all sorts of variables: the crime, the time or the person that committed it. I suspect it has something to do with what me might call the "ordinary person rule". If it something that happens to the average person or at least someone the average person might know on a day-to-day basis, then it's OK. Getting in a bit of dust-up? Having an affair? Every-day stuff. But crawling around the floor sniffing chairs for laughs? Yuk. I have no doubt there is no return for Buswell. He will probably be replaced on Tuesday, if he doesn't resign before.
Second, is that it might be time to recall past leader Colin Barnett. I have been critical of Barnett's political nous in the past, but providing he's learned some lessons he might be the best they have over there. Barnett had a good record in the polls at times in his previous stint - just a fortnight out from the 2005 election Westerners were prepared to embrace him as their premier (until he self-immolated over the big canal scheme) .
Third, Don't write the Liberals off in WA at the next election. They certainly aren't favourites - a long way from it - but they have some chance. The problem is settling on a leader. Paul Omodei was a flop and now Buswell. But despite this, the party has managed to score in the high 40's, even over 50%, at times on a two-party preferred basis in opinion polls over the past three years. Other state Liberals would kill for results like that (although NSW is showing close to a line ball now). And don't forget that WA voted 53/47 FOR the Liberals at the 2007 federal election, when the nation went 53/47 the other way. WA was the only state or territory that returned a 2pp result in the conservatives' favour. That means that voters have a propensity to vote Liberal, in stark contrast to Tasmania for example, and that counts for a lot. To pluck a figure out of the air, I give them a 20% chance of winning.
Fourthly, and related to the above, expect Labor to call the election early to take advantage of the Lib's turmoil. The earliest possible date is 21 June, so expect a winter election.
UPDATE: An observant reader has alerted me to the fact the Centrebet has odds up on the the West Australian election, apparently for some time.
Current odds are $1.25 Labor and $3.50 Coalition. That translates to (after eliminating the bookie's vigourish) a 74% chance of a Labor victory and 26% chance for the Coalition. As I said, the Blues are far from favourites but in with a chance.
UPDATE 2: The Poll Bludger, William Bowe, who lives in WA has an excellent discussion on his site. William suggests Alan Carpenter is constrained by the mechanics of upper/lower house election terms and is unlikely to call an election before August, leaving us with a September election day.
