Card-carrying China groveler Geoff Raby is like a weathervane of Chinese influence in Australia. His return to the AFR tells us that his tailwind is growing, as we have seen around Albo’s China pivot, and it is safe to re-emerge and argue for a further selling out to Beijing. He doesn’t have much to say
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When the Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe first began raising interest rates in May 2022, the question in the minds of many commentators and economists was, when will they be cut again? What followed was the largest and swiftest relative rise in interest rates in Australia’s history. But then the Reserve Bank did something that
With the release of the latest national accounts data, it was revealed that Australia’s GDP in per capita terms is once again contracting. Meanwhile, in headline GDP terms, the economy grew by 0.2%, surprising to the downside of the analyst consensus of growth of 0.4%. Australian GDP per capita has now contracted in 9 of
Nice pop in the NAB survey yesterday. However, under the bonnet, it’s exaggerated with construction confidence distorting the survey. Price indicators remain weak. Rate cuts working some magic. Better, but no cigar.
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For that is what they are. AFR. Senior Japanese officials have expressed concern the Albanese government is considering a domestic gas reserve, telling West Australian Premier Roger Cook during a trade visit that their country cannot be a long-term investment partner with Australia if LNG isn’t readily available. …“What they said to us is that
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The ferrous market is bifurcating as traders wonder about the steel ouput cut. CISA steel output is falling anyway. My view is we are likely to follow the 2023 pattern in H2 as official cuts, steel export falls, and tariffs take their toll. UBS has joined the bears. As the market moves from balance to
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DXY is trying to push higher. AUD is a bit stalled. Lead boots too. And gold. I don’t know what oil is doing. Perhaps chasing copper as Trump slams the market with a 50% tariff. Nothing can save the big miners. EM rolled. Junk false breakout. As Trump tarifflation is back. Stocks no likee. Yields
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After years of failure, the RBA has given up entirely on forecasting and is driving through the rearview mirror. Goldman. In her post-meeting press conference Governor Bullock stressed that the decision to pause the easing cycle was “about timing rather than direction” with the RBA just “looking for further confirmation we are on the forecast
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You need a quota to win a seat in a Tasmanian House of Assembly election. But in practice no-one polls exactly a quota. In reality, the final seats are decided by partial quotas and the distribution of preferences.
Yet these patterns are not random – parties that poll over a certain vote share are much more likely to win a certain number of seats, and parties that poll below a certain vote share have little chance of winning that last seat. Given a certain vote share, some parties are more likely to win a seat on that vote than others, and those trends have shifted over time.
Overnight saw Wall Street was uneasy with a lack of confidence and direction as trade “negotiations” continued via threats from the Oval Office, including an early morning barb against Australian exports which will likely see pharmaceutical stocks here locally suffer on the open. Remember to keep all eyes on the US Treasury market with 10
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has dismissed efforts by members of the European Parliament to oust her, branding her critics “conspiracy theorists” and accusing them of acting on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Von der Leyen blames Russia for no-confidence motionThe EU chief has labeled her critics “conspiracy theorists”
