10:00 – Hello and welcome. I’m going to be using this live blog to cover the declaration of nominations today.
At midday local time in each part of Australia, ballot draws will be conducted for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Nominations closed yesterday, but we don’t yet know who made the final cut. At the declaration, those names will be announced, each candidate will have a ball assigned to them in a lottery device, and then those balls will be drawn out.
Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro published intriguing charts showing the sharp decline in consumer inflation expectations. The following chart shows that the long-running monthly Melbourne Institute measure of consumer inflation expectations has fallen to the long-run (1995–2019) average on a quarterly basis. The same holds for consumer inflation expectations two years from now. Justin Fabo
The Market Ear on historical movements in safe havens. Safe? US 30 year closing at another new recent high…and the dollar moving in the totally opposite direction. Big stuff going on under the surface. How safe is safe? Refinitiv VXTLT “Unstoppable”…and possibly even more important watching the VXTLT than the VIX at the moment. Refinitiv
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The short covering rally on Wall Street quickly reversed as the insider traders made their profits while the rest of the risk complex gravely worked out that the end is still coming, 90 day stay of execution or not. The USD was shot down with its weakest one day performance in three years with a
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US Democratic Senator Adam Schiff has called on Congress to investigate President Donald Trump for possible insider trading and market manipulation following his abrupt trade policy U-turn. Global stocks soared after the president paused the imposition of tariffs on a multitude of countries this week.
DXY is a falling meteor of death. This isn’t going to help tariff inflation. EUR is breaking out. AUD blasted higher. Even concrete boots rose. Oil is down. Gold could do anything here. Commdos reflated a touch. Big miners did not. EM stocks did not. Junk is falling away again, especially EM. As the US
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Let me play devil’s advocate for a minute. I’m not here to defend President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But I do want to push back against the way the conversation around them often unfolds – dismissing them offhand with a smug “well, that’s just dumb,” without any regard for the broader economic context, either at home or globally.
While Australia’s mainstream media and the university and property lobbies continue to lie about the impacts of immigration on the rental market, Canada has provided a dose of reality. In the years following the pandemic, Canada experienced an unprecedented boom in immigration, which drove a record 1.2 million increase in the country’s population in 2023–04.
