Via the always excellent Charlie McElligott at Nomura. From Left-Tail To Risk-Tail… 1). The “Trump Collar” helped to compress then collapse realized Volatility off the most extremely 100%ile levels April / May, as the market reconditioned to his reaction function (selling the call at the highs with emboldened tariff rhetoric, but long the put into
The post Do hedge now appeared first on MacroBusiness.
As we know, Australia’s East Coast already has a suite of secretly subsidised coal power stations in NSW, VIC and QLD to go alongside heavily subsidised renewables. The reason for this is that the “duck curve” of renewable energy, which makes power super cheap during the day, then expensive in the evening, does not work
The post Albo aims for energy trinity of doom appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The Albanese Government says it has brokered a deal with the Trump Administration that will see American beef allowed into Australia in return for America keeping Scott Morrison on US soil.
ABS Labour mobility was out yesterday and shows the Great Resignation is well and truly over, if it ever was. the job mobility rate decreased to 7.7% younger workers were more mobile than older workers, with 12% of people aged 15 to 24 years changing jobs 2.2 million people left or lost a job The annual
The post The Great Resignation is over, if it ever was appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Outfits like the Grattan Institute argue that Australia needs to maintain a high immigration policy to maximise productivity growth. Their analysis consistently overlooks the empirical evidence showing that Australia’s productivity growth declined as immigration surged. Australia has experienced the strongest population growth in the advanced world this century, yet its productivity performance has been abysmal.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said that it was awaiting two vital pieces of data before lowering rates: the June labour force report and the Q2 CPI inflation print. The June labour force figures printed weaker than expected, with the headline unemployment rate rising to 4.31%—above the RBA’s latest projection. Full-time jobs contracted sharply,
Ferrous is up and down again. At these prices, Indian ore will flow. Any push higher and they will gush. Meanwhile, Chinese property is still stuffed. Goldman. Sales are no bueno. Inventory improvement stalling. Completions are a bit better. The Politburo is in the next few days, so look out for more yawnulus.
The post Chinese property bust continues appeared first on MacroBusiness.
The issue of productivity and its impact on real earnings has been a major source of debate among Australian economists since the Global Financial Crisis. With productivity in headline terms flatlining for the best part of the last decade, except for the lockdown and closed border-driven bump seen during the pandemic, the issue has recently
