With the federal election due by May 2025, all polling suggests that we are headed for a hung parliament. Roy Morgan believes that the result would be “too close to call.” Preferences would determine which party forms government, with the support of minor parties and independents. “If preferences are distributed by what voters tell us
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its half-yearly Financial Stability Review (FSR), which noted that around one-in-20 Australian borrowers have a cashflow shortfall: “In addition to cutting back their spending to mostly essential items and trading down in quality for some goods and services, these households have had to make other difficult adjustments to
Nature, noise, rehab: Queensland tightens wind farm planning rules in renewables regulation overhaul
Newspoll with the analysis. Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 30 per cent in NSW, marking a historical low with a swing against the Albanese government potentially enough to cost it three to four seats in the largest state alone. An exclusive demographic and state by state Newspoll analysis shows Labor facing a partial rebellion
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You won’t see another short squeeze this violent for a very long time. The Market Ear. Beyond parabolic The CSI 300 is up some 27% from recent lows. We have a hard time remembering when an index went from trading way below the 200 day moving average, to way above it. Beyond impressive. Refinitiv 40%
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The Albanese government delivered a second consecutive budget surplus, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro: The underlying cash budget balance recorded a surplus of $15.8 billion (0.6% of GDP) in 2023-24, which was larger than forecast in the May Budget. Massive personal tax receipts from the rapidly expanding labour market (read: immigration)
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released retail sales data for August, which jumped by a strong 0.7% over the month to be 3.1% higher year-on-year: The result smashed economists’ expectations of a 0.4% monthly increase. As shown in the table above, the rise was driven by durable goods sales, which increased by 0.8%
These were from yesterday. In its regular meeting today (29 September) chaired by Premier Li Qiang, the State Council focused on the implementation of “launching a basket of incremental easing measures” (“研究部署一揽子增量政策的落实工作”), and reiterated the pledge to “strive for the full-year growth targets”, echoing President Xi’s call in the SeptemberPolitburo meeting. Specifically, Premier Li pledged
University of South Australia Media Release When it comes to what people think about sharks, ‘Jaws’ has a lot to answer for. So while older generations shudder at the sound of the infamous two-note tuba alternation, what do younger generations think of sharks? That’s exactly the question being asked by researchers at the University of…
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Westpac with the note. The Westpac Card Tracker Index* has been relatively steady through September, holding at 135.4 in the latest week ended September 21. The data continues to point to a lacklustre spending response to the ‘stage 3’ tax cuts and other fiscal support measures that came into effect from the start of July.
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Since MB drove BREE, the old and inept Australian government commodity forecaster, out of business, the Office of the Chief Economist took over the job and has done much better. BREE was always far too bullish and OCE has been much more realistic. However, its latest update is not so good. Overall, it has gotten
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The Productivity Commission with the report. A year has passed since the ‘COVID-19 productivity bubble’ and Australian productivity growth appears to have reverted to the same stagnant pattern as before the pandemic, despite the very different economic conditions. Labour productivity declined by 0.8% for the whole economy in the June 2024 quarter (an increase of