The Market Ear on ludicrously overbought gold. Gold – on the road to 3k Unstoppable gold continues surging today again. As we have been pointing out recently: gold is overbought, but there is room for it to move even higher before we reach the upper part of the channel (comes in around $3k). Source: Refinitiv
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Current market pricing has ascribed a 93% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the official cash rate at next week’s monetary policy meeting. CBA’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, ascribes an 80% probability of a 0.25% rate cut next week. Aird noted that the Q4 24 trimmed mean CPI came
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DXY is firm. AUD too. Not lead boots. Commods ripped. Miners not so much. EM yawn. Sooner or later, junk will either rally or kill the wider bull. Curve steepened. Stocks have another crack ATH. I’m not sure why the sudden surge in commodities. Lifting global PMIs, for the most part. With some tariff hedging
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Another round of Trump Tariffs overnight saw risk markets largely shake off the volatility even though the EU is gearing up to be next in sight as the global trade war heats up. Wall Street bounced back after watching the Superb Owl and absorbing the slightly weaker than expected jobs print on Friday night with
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Alan Kohler penned another article decrying Australia’s housing crisis, which he argues is driven by “lip service, hypocrisy, and an investment culture”. Kohler notes that the Albanese government’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years is a “lost cause”. “The number of housing approvals has declined, not increased!”. “Since mid-2024, when the five
According to George Bernard Shaw, the most popular method of distributing wealth is the method of the roulette table.
Even though I didn’t drive, I was still pretty worn out by the time I got back from the film festival panel on the weekend. Luckily, Jane had made chicken Provençal, which was a nice thing to come home to. She’d opened a bottle of Chardonnay for the recipe—Allendale, I think—so I had a glass with dinner. It was the first bottle of wine we’d opened in about six months. Anyway, it was nice. We ate, had a drink, and then I sort of drifted around, not doing much of anything.
Asian share markets are somewhat positive despite another spray of tariff demands from the Orange Mussolini with Chinese shares brushing off the reciprocal reactions as the trade war heats up domestically, affecting Australian exports. Luckily the local economy is broad, diverse and robust to deal with cuts to primary exports…..Anyway, the USD gapped higher against
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