Peter Martin

"Australia can do very well without Quadrant, the Institute of Public Affairs and The Australian...

Peter Martin - March 13, 2010 - 10:55pm
jq.jpg

...We cannot do without science and scientists. The time has come to make a choice."

-  John Quiggin

Here's his full piece:

It is a commonplace to observe that Australia’s scientific institutions and organizations, have played a central role in promoting Australia’s prosperity and in maintaining our country’s place as a leading contributor to the growth of knowledge. Read more »

Back to Black: "Mr Speaker, tonight I announce a projected surplus..."

Peter Martin - March 13, 2010 - 11:50am
swan+parliament.jpg

It'd make a change from last year when he couldn't even bring himself to say "deficit"

So strong is Australia's emerging recovery analysts now believe Treasurer Wayne Swan may be on track to bring down a Budget surplus next year instead of in 2015 as officially forecast.

The dramatic turnaround identified by a range of forecasters who have spoken to the Herald flows from projected big gains in export prices, resurgent company profits and a jobs market which against expectations has piled on 200,000 extra jobs in the past six months. Read more »

I reckon Lachlan Murdoch's got the common touch

Peter Martin - March 12, 2010 - 10:33pm
Lachlan_Murdoch.jpg

Let's see. His company buys 50% of the broadcaster that owns Vega and Nova FM.

Then...

Vega gets axed, reborn as a contentless juke box called "Classic Rock FM".

Common, eh. Read more »

Welcome back... to the biggest "return to work" in 20 years

Peter Martin - March 12, 2010 - 11:02am
kotter.JPG

Millions and millions of hours of hidden underemployment are being unwound

Not that you would know it reading some coverage Read more »

It turns out unemployment fell to 5.2% in January

Peter Martin - March 11, 2010 - 12:00pm

The ABS has revised down January's 5.3%

But now with jobs growth almost steady it has inched back up to... 5.3%

Bloody good, I reckon:

unemp+feb+2010.JPG

Read more »

That housing boom. It stopped in January.

Peter Martin - March 11, 2010 - 12:45am
housing.jpg

Going backwards

Home lending since September:

NSW down 43%
Queensland down 39%
South Australia down 37%
Tasmania down 33%
Western Australia down 32%
Victoria down 30%

ABS 5609.0 Read more »

Was Stern Hu one of the few Australians who understood China? That John Garnaut article.

Peter Martin - March 10, 2010 - 11:42pm
garnaut2.jpg

It was in the Herald Monday. Here's the text:

Barely a week goes by without another multi-billion dollar reminder of the gap between the supply and demand of credible information and analysis on China.

The information deficit is partly due to China's failure to improve the transparency and credibility of its statistics in line with the growth of its economy. Read more »

Did Australia's voting system cost Avatar the gong for Best Picture?

Peter Martin - March 10, 2010 - 8:34am
aec2.jpg

Probably.

Oscar voting used to be first-past-the-post.

This year for the first time since the 1943 they decided to use Australia's preferential voting system.

Voters will rank order the ten nominated films. If any film has a majority of voters picking it as top choice, it's elected. If not, the film with the fewest first place votes is eliminated and that film's supporters are counted as voting for their second choice. Repeat until some film has majority support. Read more »

A misinformed view what's happening with the Henry Report?

Peter Martin - March 9, 2010 - 3:42pm
newspaper.jpg

Paul Syvret in the Courier-Mail

Neither Swan nor Rudd will be drawn on when - if ever - the Henry report will see the light of day, with Rudd maintaining last week that he was too busy trying to bandage the health system to worry about tax. The issue has been triaged, if you like.

Er, here's Swan on January 22:

It's a comprehensive report, it covers the entire taxation system, we said that we will release the report after we've examined it and we'll do that early this year with an initial response. Read more »

Henry: We've only just begun (to properly value the environment)

Peter Martin - March 6, 2010 - 12:28am

ken_henry.jpgAs if he didn't have enough on his plate

Treasury boss Ken Henry has taken a swipe at the work of his own department as well as others on valuing the environment saying much of it is flawed and fails to give proper weight to the importance of retaining Australia's unique biodiversity.

Fresh from producing the as-yet-unreleased Henry Tax Review and in the midst of preparing the 2010 Budget Dr Henry told an environment conference in Sydney that the part of his Intergenerational Report that had received the least attention was the section on environmental sustainability. Read more »

Bright idea: Don't privatise the NBN - Kohler

Peter Martin - March 5, 2010 - 10:21am

"Communications Minister Stephen Conroy should do more than just remove from the NBN legislation the option for it to be a retailer – he should put in a clause that it will never raise equity or be privatised.

The NBN can, and should, be fully funded by government-guaranteed debt.

Its prices should be regulated to provide a margin over the cost of that funding to pay for management and maintenance, and then that’s it.

And those misty-eyed nostalgics within the government who want to create another PMG or Telecom Australia should be taken aside, arm on their shoulders, and counselled: get over it, the world has moved on, and it wasn’t really better then anyway. Read more »

We're back, so spending's capped. Let's hope we really are.

Peter Martin - March 4, 2010 - 7:52am
back2.JPG

Treasurer Wayne Swan has signaled we're in for that rarest of political events - a tough election-year budget.

Welcoming figures that show an extraordinary turnaround in Australia's economic fortunes from a projected collapse during 2009 to near-trend growth of 2.7 per cent the Treasurer said he would be imposing a tight cap on spending growth from this year's May budget rather than waiting a year as a literal reading of earlier commitments would allow him to do.

The government has promised to restrain real spending growth to 2 per cent per year once economic growth returns to trend. Read more »

Wednesday column: You think there's agreement around the the Reserve Bank board table?

Peter Martin - March 3, 2010 - 10:32am

Strong disagreement more likely

If you can't make sense of what's happening to the economy you're in esteemed company. The Board of the Reserve Bank can't easily agree either. Read more »

Out of the woods? The Treasurer doesn't think so

Peter Martin - March 2, 2010 - 7:54pm

For BusinessDay:

The Reserve Bank believes we're out of the woods.

Its statement released after today's board meeting says "labour market data and a range of business surveys suggest growth in the economy may have already been at or close to trend for a few months".

Wayne Swan doesn't buy it. Read more »

The economics of dating - the case for older women

Peter Martin - March 1, 2010 - 6:56pm

Here it is - real data from real dating sites showing how most guys get it wrong - looking for love in all the wrong places so to speak.

men1.jpg

women1.jpg

The interactive graph, which I can't reproduce here, is evocative. Read more »

It's the Canberra Show this weekend, which has meant...

Peter Martin - February 26, 2010 - 7:35pm

...the parking of the portable primary school for show children in the playground of my children's school:

school22.jpg

show.jpg

Note the bags hung under the classroom. At lunch and recess the show kids play with the Canberra kids.

Wonderful, eh?

Australia gets some government programs wrong. Some seem very good.

Read more »

What's driving our "investment boom"?

Peter Martin - February 26, 2010 - 9:34am

ebe.jpgCars

A dramatic jump in spending by businesses on on "equipment, plant and machinery" is set to push up Australia's economic growth rate and tip the Reserve Bank into pushing up interest rates next week... but it's not all it seems.

The Bureau of Statistics reports private new capital expenditure jumped 5.5 per cent over the three months to December driven by an astonishing 12 per cent jump in spending on equipment, plant and machinery. Treasurer Wayne Swan hailed it as evidence that stimulus is promoting economic activity.

But much of it isn't what is normally thought of equipment or machinery. Read more »

Without the stimulus what would we have?

Peter Martin - February 25, 2010 - 8:04pm

construction+work+done3.jpgNot much of a building industry

The scale of the Rudd government's stimulus-funded building spree has become apparent in new figures showing a record $4 billion of public money was spent on non-residential construction in the three months to December - a remarkable 62 per cent jump on the three months before. Read more »

Maybe we don't have enough government debt

Peter Martin - February 22, 2010 - 10:12pm

Or at least not enough to satisfy the demand from our banks.

The Governor said it Friday, now Deutsche Bank warns that under forthcoming regulations..

"...the stock of commonwealth and semi government debt will almost certainly be insufficient for bank liquidity purposes. It is inevitable, in our view, that Supra and agency debt will be included in the pool of high quality liquid assets as a consequence. But even this will not provide a large enough pool of liquid assets for the banks, in our view, unless the liquidity buffer is kept relatively small." Read more »

"I've had a Westpac of a day"

Peter Martin - February 18, 2010 - 10:18pm

Up on Westpac's tweet site late this afternoon:

Westpac+over+it.jpg

As a concerned Simon Thomsen tweeted in response: Gail, step away from the window...

HT: Julie Posetti


Related Posts

. Westpac pays bananas? Read more »

Thursday column: The networks war on TV

Peter Martin - February 18, 2010 - 11:12am
hitch.jpg

Greedy. Crafty. Ruthless. How the networks won.

There are five free-to-air television networks in Australia. All are now government funded.

How it came to this when any one of a number of private entrepreneurs would have been keen to enter the market on any terms and take their chances providing viewers with what they want says as much about the malleability of our leaders as it does about the essentially anti-television attitudes of the networks who claim to be its protectors. Read more »

Steve Keen to walk to Kosciuszko April 15 - 23

Peter Martin - February 16, 2010 - 4:38pm
keen.jpg

Sponsor him at keenwalk.com.au

CBD has the story:

"Never one to shy away from the glare of the media, the University of Western Sydney's Steve Keen has launched a website to promote his forthcoming ascent of Australia's tallest peak, Mount Kosciuszko.

Keen is required to scale the hill as a result of losing his bet with the Macquarie economist Rory Robertson on the direction of house prices. Read more »

Expect a visit, with a locksmith, if you're hiding something from the Tax Office

Peter Martin - February 16, 2010 - 9:31am
breakin.jpg

There are maybe 280,000 such visits per year

The Tax Office has been given a "tick of approval" for continuing to break into homes, cars and workplaces where it believes documents are at risk of being destroyed. Read more »

Still waiting for your tax return?

Peter Martin - February 15, 2010 - 8:09pm

old+computer+image.jpg

It could be because the Tax Office computer has been off

Things will start to look up for as many as half a million taxpayers from today.

They're caught in a backlog that began on the Australia Day long weekend when the Tax Office took the unusual step of turning off the aging computer system that processes tax returns and transferring all 27 million taxpayer records and 280 million forms to a new one. Read more »

Chomsky (and others) on love, this special day

Peter Martin - February 14, 2010 - 1:20pm

chomsky.jpg

It's here, at Big Think.

My favourite quorte, from David Schnarch - instead of an aphrodisiac, being nice to your partner works better.

Related Posts

. Love, marriage, contraception and money

. The world is full of married men

. And more on marriage

Read more »

It's the stimulus, stupid. You can't spend $14 billion upgrading schools without employing people

Peter Martin - February 12, 2010 - 8:13am
bobthebuilder.jpg

Employing blokes

The stimulus has been credited with a surge in male employment that has pushed Australia's unemployment rate down to 5.3 per cent as the head of the Treasury has declared the financial crisis "behind us".

An extra 52,700 Australians found work in January, two-thirds of them male . Read more »

So who’s getting the jobs?

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 7:06pm

victoria.jpgExtra jobs since October, trend

Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted

Victoria +41,900 5.3%
Western Australia +12,000 5.0% Read more »

How unemployment looks - now

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 12:02pm
Unemployemnt+January.JPG

Peter's post:


Peter Martin is economics correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald, Age and National Times. He blogs at peter martin, peter's picks and twitter.

Unemployment rate 5.3 per cent!!!

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 11:31am

Peter Martin is economics correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald, Age and National Times. He blogs at peter martin, peter's picks and twitter.

Low interest rates as far as the eye can see - Glenn Stevens

Peter Martin - February 10, 2010 - 12:53pm

It'd cut the Coalition's ground from under it

The head of the Reserve Bank has held out the prospect of low interest rates as far as the eye can see, saying monetary policy should "remain more accommodative than otherwise" so long as Labor sticks to its pledge to restrain spending. Read more »

Well it's quarter of a billion, see. And I'm handing it to Australia's commercial television stations

Peter Martin - February 8, 2010 - 12:13pm

conroy+santa1.jpgWhat the??

Christmas has come early to Australia's commercial television channels in the form of a $240 million gift from Communications Minister Steven Conroy.

This year he will give the networks a 33 per cent rebate on their annual licence fees of $287, and next year a 50 per cent rebate.

Although the announcement is headed "Government to protect Australian content on commercial television" the broadcasters will be required to do no more than meet the existing Australian content requirements in return for the rebates. Read more »

We're not shopping like we did

Peter Martin - February 5, 2010 - 7:21pm

christmasshopping+2.JPGIt had to happen

Christmas failed to arrive for big retailers in December with total sales well down despite widespread discounting.

The surprise finding in the eagerly-awaited December Bureau of Statistics report mirrors that of Myer which yesterday reported "negative" Christmas sales when compared with the year before and helps vindicate the Reserve Bank in its decision to keep interest rates on hold in February while it assesses the impact of its three successive rate hikes in the lead-up to Christmas. Read more »

"To highlight how strange tax has become, just turn your attention to brandy"

Peter Martin - February 3, 2010 - 7:56pm
brandy.jpg

The West Australian's Shane Wright with a woeful but perhaps-typical tale of public administration:

"Brandy seems a strange place to start, but the way it is taxed highlights just how important it is to continually look at improving the tax system.

Brandy, you see, attracts a different rate of excise than other spirits. The lower rate costs you and I about $5 million a year in foregone revenue.

That’s not a lot of money, but $5 million is money that could be used in a health promotion campaign or to arm a few Australian soldiers or even provide a grant to some company to break into an overseas market. Read more »

Going up. Again. Don't doubt it.

Peter Martin - February 3, 2010 - 8:24am
up-2.JPG

At least three more times, then perhaps more

Interest rates are set to climb in the months ahead with the Reserve Bank penciling in several more hikes despite deciding to keep rates on hold at its Tuesday meeting.

The surprise outcome saw the Australian dollar plunge more than one US cent, helped push up the share market almost 2 per cent and left the online bookmaker Centrebet red-faced after having refused to take bets on a rate rise it felt was certain. Read more »

How has Westpac helped?

Peter Martin - February 2, 2010 - 4:34pm

This just up in the National Times:

Who's to thank for interest rates staying on hold?

The Reserve Bank has come close to thanking Westpac, along with the other banks that imposed outsized mortgage rate increases.

Its statement this afternoon says "with the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board had moved at recent meetings to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker". Read more »

Rates up at 2.30 pm AEDT

Peter Martin - February 2, 2010 - 12:07pm
up-2.JPG

It'll be here

The Reserve Bank is considered certain to increase interest rates for a record forth consecutive time this afternoon adding a further $47 per month to the cost of servicing a $300,000 mortgage on top of the $135 to $185 added since October.

The announcement, due at the conclusion of the board meeting at 2.30 pm has been so well anticipated that the bookmaker Centrebet refused to take bets, declaring there was "not a hope in hades" of rates staying put. Read more »

Today's Intergenerational Report - don't let it get to you

Peter Martin - February 1, 2010 - 12:21am
chill_pill.jpg

I am not denying there will demographic changes - I am just saying we will easily deal with them, as we always have

Swan's report, Australia to 2050: Future Challenges  will be out at 12.30 AEDT.

His speech will be broadcast live on ABC TV at 12.30 local time in all states. Read more »

I mentioned that I used to work in television news... (funny video)

Peter Martin - January 31, 2010 - 10:06am

Not for long, and always as part of another job, mainly being the ABC's Tokyo Correspondent.

My reports were NEVER like this:

HT: Mark Colvin


Related Posts

. Ah, television

. The ABC keeps trying to do more with less Read more »

Did Australia spend too much to avoid recession?

Peter Martin - January 30, 2010 - 9:12am

Gee, not compared with our peers

Here's the Harvard Business Review graphic.

Each circle on the map represents a nation'a GDP. The bailouts and the stimulus are displayed as a percentage of GDP in red and blue.

Click here to enlarge and explore. Read more »

The 2009 Tax Expenditures Statement is out. And the winner is...

Peter Martin - January 29, 2010 - 2:19pm

TES.JPG

 ...owner-occupied housing, at $31 billion

Superannuation comes a respectable second, at $24.5 billion

It's here. Read more »

Rain CUTS traffic deaths

Peter Martin - January 25, 2010 - 10:43am
Traffic.jpg

Counterintuitive, but that's what the evidence assembled by Andrew Leigh suggests.

He uses it to argue that the true cost of drought is higher than commonly realised.

Precipitation, Profits, and Pile-Ups

Andrew Leigh, Centre for Economics Policy Research Discussion Paper 629 Read more »

Guess what? Henry examined the evidence

Peter Martin - January 23, 2010 - 9:31am

map.jpgHow it unfolded:

A funny thing happened on the way to preparing the biggest-ever review of Australia's system of tax and government handouts.

The answers changed from under the committee.

The final report of the Henry Review, with the government since December, is 10 centremetres thick printed on A-4 paper. It'll look neater when it is bound and printed.

It would have also looked very different had it reflected the thinking of Ken Henry and his four-person team nearer the time they were appointed. Read more »

Prepare to pay more tax

Peter Martin - January 22, 2010 - 7:00pm

Not now, but soon: Ken Henry

Treasury boss Ken Henry has dashed expectations that his tax review will pave the way for lower tax declaring that over time Australians will have to pay more.

Addressing the annual conference of the Australasian Tax Teachers Association Dr Henry said the tax system had to be prepared for the probability that "in order to finance the government-provided goods and services demanded by the community, revenue needs will grow strongly in the longer term". Read more »

We feel more optimistic about our finances than at any time during the height of the boom

Peter Martin - January 21, 2010 - 1:58pm

survey2.JPGAnd probably back as far as the question was asked

Rapidly improving job prospects and recovering share market wealth are propelling us to spend as we haven't in years despite three consecutive rate hikes and the prospect of more on the way.

The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey finds 59 per cent of us agreeing that "now is the right time to buy a major household item", well up from last year's range of 42 to 55 per cent and the best result since mid 2007. Read more »

How fast is climate changing

Peter Martin - January 19, 2010 - 3:50pm

It depends on where you live:

velocity-n.jpg

It's quite fast for us Australians.

Brian at Larvatus Prodeo outlines the new study in Nature.


Related Posts

. An animated journey through climate change

. "There are two sides of this climate change business" Read more »

"Inflation's low, but we'll put up rates anyway"

Peter Martin - January 19, 2010 - 8:19am

rba+board.jpgThat's how it will probably play out when this board meets on February 2

If the Reserve Bank board paid attention only to Australia's official inflation rate due for release next week it'd put up its feet and leave interest rates alone.

But the December quarter CPI, now expected to come in at just 0.1 per cent and 1.7 per cent for the year to December will scarcely figure in its calculations. Read more »

Just because it looks like a "trend line" doesn't mean...

Peter Martin - January 18, 2010 - 8:28am

I've been critical of trend lines before.

The ones used by the ABS have particular problems.

But try this one on for size:

4thdegreepiffle.jpg

Note that the "trend line" ends the series going down.

But squint and look at just the purple line and it is apparent the series is broadly going up. Read more »

Back to Black. "Mr Speaker, tonight I announce a projected surplus..."

Peter Martin - March 13, 2010 - 9:49am
swan+parliament.jpg

It'd make a change from last year when he couldn't even bring himself to say "deficit"

So strong is Australia's emerging recovery analysts now believe Treasurer Wayne Swan may be on track to bring down a Budget surplus next year instead of in 2015 as officially forecast.

The dramatic turnaround identified by a range of forecasters who have spoken to the Herald flows from projected big gains in export prices, resurgent company profits and a jobs market which against expectations has piled on 200,000 extra jobs in the past six months. Read more »

What if they built a high-speed broadband network and nobody signed up?

Peter Martin - March 11, 2010 - 10:45pm

Well, actually just 200 people.

Telstra's high-speed internet service, which offers speeds of up to 100mbps has only been taken up by about 200 customers since its launch last year, throwing the viability of the NBN into question. Read more »

"Climate balance urged at ABC"

Peter Martin - March 11, 2010 - 8:42am
scales.jpg

The headline on the story in the The Australian overstates things.

None of the direct quotes in the story back it up.

But if the ABC Chairman was calling for "balance", well...

...it would take things back to the 1970's when, as I mentioned earlier Keith Fraser was the Controller of News.

Historian Ken Inglis had access to the ABC's internal files and writes in This is the ABC (at page 285):
Read more »

The job market's surging. Could a budget surplus be far behind?

Peter Martin - March 10, 2010 - 11:20am

Hockey says Swan will never deliver a surplus budget. They way things are going he'll do it while Hockey is still Shadow Treasurer

Australia's jobs market has turned white hot with newspaper job ads being placed at a rate not seen since the onset of the financial crisis and as many 1 in every 5 employers planning to take on staff as business confidence climbs to an eight-year high. Read more »

An uninformed view what's happening with the Henry Report?

Peter Martin - March 9, 2010 - 9:41pm
newspaper.jpg

Paul Syvret in the Courier-Mail

Neither Swan nor Rudd will be drawn on when - if ever - the Henry report will see the light of day, with Rudd maintaining last week that he was too busy trying to bandage the health system to worry about tax. The issue has been triaged, if you like.

Er, here's Swan on January 22:

It's a comprehensive report, it covers the entire taxation system, we said that we will release the report after we've examined it and we'll do that early this year with an initial response. Read more »

Rory: Expect a much higher cash rate, unemployment got "too low" last time

Peter Martin - March 9, 2010 - 3:11pm

"The truth is there’s only so much activity that can take place. And if we want to have all this mining investment and mining output, which is happening, basically the other parts of the economy for the moment have to be restrained somehow because the economy can’t do all these things simultaneously" - Ric Battellino

Rory Robertson: Read more »

We're getting economic refugees

Peter Martin - March 6, 2010 - 11:03am
nz.JPG

No queues, instant approval if you're across the ditch

The New Zealanders are back. After the best part of a year of being unusually cold on the idea of moving across the Tasman, New Zealanders are heading west as they used to before the economic crisis. Typically measured in the thousands per month New Zealand migration slowed to just 1140 in the worst month of last year allowing China for the first time to displace our near neighbour as our biggest source of migrants. Read more »

440 'please explain' letters per day - how the Tax Office is grabbing money

Peter Martin - March 5, 2010 - 10:44pm

money2.jpgCheap and effective

A blitz on the black economy has seen the Tax Office approach 109,000 small businesses in just eight months collecting $127 million.

Tax Commissioner Michael D’Ascenzo told a Melbourne conference yesterday the money had been extracted using a new system of "benchmarks" that identifies roughly how much tax a small business should be paying in each industry and then flags unusual cases and sends out queries asking whether are being careless with their bookkeeping or deliberately withholding tax.

Since July it has sent out the letters at the rate of 440 per day. Read more »

Rates up, 0.25 points to 4.00 per cent

Peter Martin - March 2, 2010 - 3:00pm

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 per cent, effective 3 March 2010.

The global economy is growing, and world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011. The expansion is still hesitant in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity. In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, growth has continued to be quite strong. The authorities in some countries are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economies.

Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago and the extraordinary support from governments and central banks is gradually being wound back. Credit conditions remain difficult in some major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness. Concerns regarding some sovereigns remain elevated. Read more »

Okay, are they going up?

Peter Martin - March 2, 2010 - 10:49am

Roulette2.JPGSomeone has staked $30,000 on the outcome, due at 2.30 pm AEDT

Millions of Australians stand to suffer if, as expected, the Reserve Bank lifts interest rates by a further 0.25 points this afternoon. But for one big-spending punter the pain will be extreme.

The Sydney man, a Centrebet regular, has staked just short of $30,000 on the Reserve Bank sitting on hands.

If at 2.30 this afternoon the Bank announces its board has decided to keep rates on hold he will walk away with a profit of $21,000. If it puts rates up he will say goodbye to $29,500. Read more »

NSW wins more of the GST cake, WA becomes a laughing stock

Peter Martin - February 27, 2010 - 9:26pm
states6

Winners and losers in 2010-11

NSW + $1070 million
Victoria + 872 million
Queensland + $545 million Read more »

So you think you know about economics

Peter Martin - February 25, 2010 - 9:44pm

Try the latest VCE and HSC exam papers: Read more »

Could our mining boom last another 10 years, another 20?

Peter Martin - February 25, 2010 - 7:42pm
Ric+Battellino.jpg

"The expansion could continue for an extended period"

The IMF has issued a plea to countries considering unwinding their economic stimulus measures - don't do it quickly and most probably don't do it now.

In a staff paper entitled "Exiting from Crisis Intervention Policies" released early this morning Australian time the Fund says the key lesson from earlier crises is that premature withdrawal of stimulus measures can be "very costly, particularly if the financial system is weak". Read more »

Godwin Gretch's house is for sale - check out the inside!

Peter Martin - February 22, 2010 - 7:18pm
GODWIN2.jpg

It's well-appointed.

As Jessica Wright notes in the Canberra Times, according to the listing ''the love and attention to detail will become evident once you have inspected this home ... our instructions are to sell''.


Related Posts

. Gretch, Henry, Stevens - big in 2009 Read more »

Did Stevens say Barnaby's not fit for the job?

Peter Martin - February 20, 2010 - 10:07am
joyce.jpg

Nearly. I've a softer spot for Barnaby

The Reserve Bank Governor has declared himself at odds with Coalition finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce and questioned his fitness for the job, telling a parliamentary committee he had "yet to meet a finance minister who has ever mused any possibility about debt default of his own country."

The Shadow Finance Minister claimed this month Australia was "going to hock to our eyeballs to people overseas" and was "getting to a point where we can’t repay it". Read more »

This outrage over what Conroy did... it took surprisingly long to build

Peter Martin - February 18, 2010 - 11:12pm
conroy2.jpg

I was working Sunday February 7 when Conroy made the strange announcement, and frankly felt a bit of outrage might be in order.

The ABC's Mark Scott, whose tweets I follow, actually seemed pleased with the announcement:
Read more »

"The Current Economic Landscape" - in pictures

Peter Martin - February 18, 2010 - 4:51pm

Philip Lowe is the Reserve Bank's Assistant Governor (Economic).  Here's his slideshow:

rba2.gif

Read more »

rba3.gif

The worst of the rate rises are behind us?

Peter Martin - February 17, 2010 - 7:06pm

We'll hear more from Governor Stevens Friday

The Reserve Bank has reached a pivotal point in its program of rate rises, declaring the bulk of the work behind it.

After three successive rate rises at the end of last year the board's February minutes say rates are "no longer exceptionally accommodative," merely remaining "somewhat below average". Read more »

If you thought the consumer price index measured the cost of living...

Peter Martin - February 16, 2010 - 11:34am
cpi3.jpg

You were wrong

Consumer Price Index +0.5%

Employee living cost +0.7%
Age pension living cost +0.6%
Self-funded retiree +0.6% Read more »

Of all the dodgy explanations... (Stephen Conroy edition)

Peter Martin - February 16, 2010 - 9:12am
lodge-vail-colorado-2.JPG

"Treasury were involved in developing the costings"

Well, yes. But...

Communications Minister Stephen Conroy has described as "entirely appropriate" his decision to meet with Channel Seven chief Kerry Stokes at a Colorado ski resort shortly before handing to the networks fee rebates worth one quarter of a billion dollars. Read more »

A brief history of pretty much everything

Peter Martin - February 13, 2010 - 10:19am

Maggie Koerth-Baker has made a flipbook:

HT: Boing Boing

It reminds me of the following observation...

(Warning: Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy quote)

Read more »

Enjoy this clip, but...

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 7:49pm

...it'll only make sense if you're familiar with Beyoncé

..'cos we're goin' to learn
what it really feels like with a degree...

If you learned it, should have got an 'A' on it...

Oh Oh oh...

Related Posts

. Economics. Parts of it are contagious Read more »

Who expects at least one more rate hike? 97% of us. Who expects four? 60% of us.

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 12:03pm

up-2.JPGWestpac's consumer survey:

How much pain an mortgage holders bear? Quite a lot it seems. An extraordinary 93 per cent of householders expect interest rates to climb this year; a surprising 60 per cent expect them to climb four more times.

"I was flabbergasted," says Westpac economist Bill Evans who tacked on a question about interest rate expectations to the latest Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey. Read more »

52,000 extra workers in jobs in January!

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 11:33am

Peter's post:

Continued...

Published in today's SMH and Age

Graphic: From here

Related Posts



Peter Martin is economics correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald, Age and National Times. He blogs at peter martin, peter's picks and twitter.

Who expects at least one rate hike? 97% of us. Who expects four? 60% of us.

Peter Martin - February 11, 2010 - 10:02am

up-2.JPGWestpac's consumer survey:

How much pain an mortgage holders bear? Quite a lot it seems. An extraordinary 93 per cent of householders expect interest rates to climb this year; a surprising 60 per cent expect them to climb four more times.

"I was flabbergasted," says Westpac economist Bill Evans who tacked on a question about interest rate expectations to the latest Melbourne Institute consumer confidence survey. Read more »

"When human beings are involved you make mistakes" ABS makes NSW Australia's top wine producer

Peter Martin - February 10, 2010 - 10:11am
Wine_grapes.jpg

For a fortnight

For a brief shining fortnight NSW has been officially the biggest wine-producing state in the nation.

Its ascension over the long-term leader South Australia passed almost unnoticed until Monday when the Adelaide Advertiser took the Bureau of Statistics at its word and reported the state had "lost its long-held position as the nation's largest wine-producing state for the first time since early last century." Read more »

One in 30 of us were outside the country?

Peter Martin - February 9, 2010 - 10:24am

departures2.JPGIt was roomy here in December

Australians flooded departure lounges as never before during the summer holidays, heading overseas in unprecedented numbers.

New official figures show a record 731,000 of us left the country in December, an astonishing 3.3 per cent of the population or roughly 1 in every 30 Australians .

A record 141,000 of those trips were to New Zealand which has become by far our most important tourist destination. Read more »

Government to banks - you're on your own

Peter Martin - February 8, 2010 - 10:34am

breastfeeding1.JPGAnd thanks for saying thanks

Australia's banks have been warned they will face the "wrath of the Australian government " if they push up mortgage rates in the face of a decision announced Sunday to stop guaranteeing their overseas borrowings. Read more »

Good for some. The Reserve Bank sees two Australias.

Peter Martin - February 6, 2010 - 9:25am

two+australias.jpgThat's if we're lucky

Australia's two biggest states are set to be left behind as the next resources boom gathers pace with nearly all economic growth taking place in the mining-rich states of Western Australia and Queensland in what the Reserve Bank calls "a reallocation of productive resources within the economy." Read more »

Joe Hockey, with the strangest sentence I've heard today

Peter Martin - February 5, 2010 - 7:30pm
hockey.jpg


"Firstly on the Reserve Bank’s Statement on Monetary Policy, there is a very clear message to the Rudd Bank from the Reserve Bank, Stop spending so much money."

Where Joe?

Related Posts

. Wind back the stimulus? Where's the love?

. Hockeynomics - at times an embarrassment Read more »

Unveiling... recommendations of the Coalition's Henry Review

Peter Martin - February 4, 2010 - 3:06pm

ergas.jpg
The government is sitting on the recommendations of the Ken Henry tax review.

The Opposition is sitting on the recommendations of the Henry Ergas tax review: Read more »

Tony Abbott's idea of putting overhead electricity wires underground...

Peter Martin - February 2, 2010 - 8:08pm
power-pole-3.jpg

He says in his climate policy it'll enable the planting of more trees.

But I reckon...

(A) Trees can grow pretty well below overhead wires. They do in my street.

(B) Trees can't lay down good roots where there are underground cables.

Just saying.


Related Posts

. "How can changing our economy cool the temperature?" Read more »

Rates steady! Westpac helped!

Peter Martin - February 2, 2010 - 2:48pm
westpac+globe2.JPG

"With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board had moved at recent meetings to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker. Lenders have generally raised rates a little more than the cash rate over recent months and most loan rates have risen by close to a percentage point."

"At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent. Read more »

It isn't even health insurance.

Peter Martin - February 2, 2010 - 1:22pm
oxford.jpg

The private health insurance rebate that the Coalition wants to keep unmeanstested isn't even a rebate for "insurance".

The Oxford describes insurance as a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality.

Health insurance would ensure you against getting sick.

I already knew that in fact Australian health insurance pays for routine bills, even in some cases gym shoes.

But I had at least assumed it paid out when things got bad, like fire insurance does in the case of a fire.

Here's an extract from the excellent Background Briefing repeated on Sunday. Read more »

The real intergenerational change

Peter Martin - February 2, 2010 - 11:13am

intergenerational+graphic.bmpBy 2050 our buying power will be almost twice as high

Health spending will double as a share of GDP and the chunk of the Budget set aside for health, aged pensions and aged care will hit 50 per cent in dramatic projections in the Intergenerational Report for the year 2050 that have spurred the Treasurer to launch a $43 million dollar package of grants and programs to encourage elderly Australians to stay in work. Read more »

Australia's Prime Minister didn't know what was to be in Australia's Budget

Peter Martin - January 31, 2010 - 3:05pm


I had thought that kind of thing could happen only in the UK:

IF PRE-BUDGET speculation leaves you feeling out of the loop, you're in good company. According to former Downing Street aide Derek Scott, the Prime Minister has been none the wiser, either.

In his book Off Whitehall, Scott reveals how Tony Blair was forced to beg Gordon Brown for a "hint" of what was in one of the Budgets. Blair, writes Scott, was reduced to pleading: "Give me a hint, Gordon." Read more »

Rupert to the rescue - his little-known role in the creation of ABC 24/7

Peter Martin - January 30, 2010 - 2:22pm
rupert-murdoch1.jpg

Australia's new 24 hour news channel

Here's how it happened as I remember it, and I was at ABC TV at the time and following things closely:

Telstra and NewsCorp set up a jointly-owned company called Foxtel, and later brought in other owners.

In 1995 they were looking for a 24-hour news channel as part of their offering.

The ABC put in a tender which was verbally accepted.

But it wasn't an ABC-only tender. It was the ABC in partnership with Fairfax which produces the Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and other newspapers. Read more »

Eggs, bacon, milk - breakfast gets cheaper

Peter Martin - January 28, 2010 - 8:46pm
eggs.jpg

The newspapers we read at breakfast are cheaper too in real terms

Craig James trawls the CPI so you don't have to:

"There are 90 expenditure groupings in the CPI (or as the ABS says “groupings of like items”). So it’s not surprising that some of the more interesting changes get lost. Read more »

Golden Rules for Writing, Well

Peter Martin - January 27, 2010 - 8:22am

writing.JPGFrom Iain Campbell

1.Don't abbrev.

2.Check to see if you any words out.

3.Be carefully to use adjectives and adverbs correct.

4.About sentence fragments.

5.When dangling, don't use participles.

Here's the full, list.

Related Posts Read more »

The Henry Tax Review: not quite as leaked

Peter Martin - January 23, 2010 - 2:33pm

paper_pile.jpgWhat's in

Voluntary simple tax returns
Longevity insurance
Medicare-style disability levy
Resource rent tax
Road congestion charges

What's not

Taxing the family home
Axing real estate stamp duty
Axing payroll tax
Boosting the 9% super levy
Tax indexation for capital gains

Voluntary simple tax returns, longevity insurance, a Medicare-style disability levy and incentives to keep Australians in work head a list of recommendations from the Henry Tax Review focused on aging alongside those designed to deal with increasingly mobile capital including a 40 per cent mining resource rent tax. Read more »

We own the minerals, lets get a share of the profits from selling them

Peter Martin - January 22, 2010 - 7:20pm

ironore.jpgThe Henry Tax Review has recommended scrapping the state-based royalty taxes applying to mining projects and replacing them with a uniform national resource rent tax set to raise billions more.

The tax, most likely to be set at 40 per cent, would be modeled on the existing Petroleum Resource Rent Tax that is levied on petroleum products including crude oil and natural gas mined in Commonwealth waters other than the North West Shelf and the jointly-developed area between Australia and East Timor.

Treasury calculations suggest that if the PRRT formula had been applied to resources such as iron ore and coal and to companies including BHP Billiton and Woodside Petroleum over the past three years it would raised an extra $14 billion...
Read more »

Thursday column: Message to Australia's banking industry, real estate industry, super industry...

Peter Martin - January 21, 2010 - 8:31pm

megaphone3.JPGIt isn't about you

You've got to hand it to Australia's Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries.  It knows when to stop.

After enjoying its biggest-ever pre-Christmas sales bonanza as buyers from all over the country who could even loosely describe themselves as businesses raced against the clock to take advantage of the government's 50 per cent business investment tax break, it said "thanks" but no more. Read more »

We feel more optimistic about our finances than at any time during the height of the mining boom

Peter Martin - January 21, 2010 - 12:21pm

survey2.JPGProbably back as the question was asked

Rapidly improving job prospects and recovering share market wealth are propelling us to spend as we haven't in years despite three consecutive rate hikes and the prospect of more on the way.

The latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey finds 59 per cent of us agreeing that "now is the right time to buy a major household item", well up from last year's range of 42 to 55 per cent and the best result since mid 2007. Read more »