Carefully verballed more like it
In a further embarrassment for the Coalition over costings the National Centre for Economic Modelling at the University of Canberra distanced itself from claims it had helped model the policies.
"We never spoke to the Coalition," said NATSEM director Alan Duncan. "We did work for the Parliamentary Library that the Coalition may have asked for, but we had no relationship with the Coalition itself." Read more »
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| Sydney Morning Herald |
See Colebatch, below
The government is claiming vindication after a surprise jump in economic growth delivered Australia one of the strongest growth rates in the developed world, exceeding those in the US, the UK and most of Europe. Read more »
From the Reserve Bank, 4.30 pm:
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Just as well, with the stimulus ending. GDP at 11.30
In the three months to June:
. Record $74 billion export income
. Largest trade surplus since 1970s
. Decade-low current account deficit
In July:
. Spending at cafés & restaurants up 8.5%
. Talk of "MasterChef effect"
. Building approvals up 2.3%
. House prices up 0.4% Read more »
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| Sydney Morning Herald |
200 lives per year. Well done.
Ten years of suicide data in the wake of John Howard's decision to ban and buy back half a million semi-automatic rifles and shotguns has produced a stunning conclusion. Read more »
Oh my. The Coalition and the Perth auditor have bought into trouble.
The Coalition has defended the work of the Perth accountancy firm that costed its election promises as the Institute of Chartered Accountants has launched a formal investigation into its conduct.
The institute revealed late yesterday it had received a complaint about the conduct of two members of the firm, WHK Horwath. Read more »
As twittered from 7.00 pm (reverse order):
1petermartin
Abbott's chance of being Prime Minister just evaporated #ausvotes #auswaits
less than 20 seconds ago via web
BernardKeane
There's Abbott's third meltdown right there.
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Pollytics
Treasury incompetent Abbott effectively said! Oh dear
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
Retweeted by you
1petermartin
Abbott just said public service not competent to properly cost opposition policy #ausvotes #auswaits Read more »
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| TD Securities |
We've finally made it through?
The Australian economy has dodged a bullet. Private sector construction has climbed faster than government-funded construction for the first time since the economic stimulus measures put in place to fight the financial crisis. Read more »
TO JULIA GILLARD and TONY ABBOTT
Requests for information
1. We seek access to information under the ‘caretaker conventions’ to economic advice from the Secretary of the Treasury Ken Henry and Secretary of Finance David Tune, including the costings and impacts of Government and Opposition election promises and policies on the budget.
2. We seek briefings from the following Secretaries of Departments:
1. Broadband, Communications and the Digital Economy
2. Health and Ageing
3. Education, Employment and Workplace Relations
4. Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government
5. Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
6. Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Water
7. Defence
8. Resources, Energy and Tourism3. We seek briefings from caretaker Ministers and Shadow Ministers in the above portfolio areas to discuss their program for the next three years. Read more »
It may even finish them politically.
From Lenore Taylor this morning:
THE independent Tony Windsor will ask the two main parties to submit all their election policies to the Treasury for costing so negotiations to form a government can begin with an agreed budgetary starting point.
The Coalition refused to submit most of its big-ticket policies to the Treasury during the election campaign on the grounds that a leaked Treasury document published in the Herald had eroded confidence in the process. Coalition costings were checked by an accounting firm instead.
The decision led to furious argument between the parties in the final days of the campaign. Read more »
Whatever
Crisis? Hardly. Financial markets shrugged off talk of "mayhem" and "turmoil" to trade roughly as normal Monday, in same cases a little better.
The Australian dollar closed higher than on Friday, more than regaining the one US cent it lost in thin overseas trading before domestic trade opened. At 89.2 US cents late yesterday it was buying more than at any point on election eve.
"The speculators who sold early were probably squeezed a little bit during the course of the day," said Royal Bank of Scotland foreign exchange strategist Greg Gibbs. Read more »
It's a grand tradition.
But the those in charge of last night's Q&A could have gone further... (Hi Peter, Hi Amanda)
...as did the BBC game show Have I Got News For You after a Labour MP cancelled on them for the third time:
Congratulations Andrew.
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"Despite the cynicism many of us feel about both sides of the campaign, despite the leaders treating us like idiots and despite the general malaise in our political system – today’s election, like every election, is an important day that we should never fail to appreciate – not because of the quality of the choices we have on offer, but simply because we, unlike so many others, actually have a choice. As we said on the morning of the 2007 election: Read more »
The Coalition's farce unravels
The firm the Coalition says audited its election costings has been accused of breaching both auditing and ethical standards in a complaint to be lodged with the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
Professor Bob Walker of Sydney University, a 40-year member of the Institute, will lodge a private complaint because he says it is "in the public interest that auditing standards be respected".
"If they had produced a report like this on a prospectus, they would be in trouble because it would be an offence under the Corporations Act not to comply with relevant standards," Professor Walker said. Read more »
Well..
A private economic consultancy has entered the debate between the Coalition and 50 leading economists over stimulus, releasing a study saying much of the spending would have paid for itself.
Melbourne research firm Lateral Economics says around 22.5 cents out of every dollar spent would have flowed back to the government in extra tax, leaving just 77.5 cents in debt.
Lateral chief Nicholas Gruen said his study was "borne of frustration" rather than being paid for or inspired by the the Labor party. Read more »
The Herald wanted to know
A funny thing happens when you talk to Wayne Swan. You feel as if you are getting somewhere, until you read back your notes. The Treasurer is "encouraged by the results," he finds them "encouraging," the government "should not be complacent," the results are "quite encouraging," he is "not complacent," and so on. Read more »
It's from new blogger mattcowgill, who by the way disapproves of Henry's proposed change, noting that the big noting that the big dollar gains at the top end.
But I reckon any tax cut -- even an across the board tax cut of one percentage point - will give big dollar gains at the top end. I reckon the percentage gains for the well-off would be small.
Welcome mattcowgill.
Related Posts Read more »
Me actually. I thought he would go even further.
The Coalition is is considering taxing all but a fraction of Australians at at one simple flat rate, exempting from tax the first $25,000 each Australian earns. Read more »
From Latika Bourke:
JG takes the phone from an enthusiastic woman talking to her son who Mum assures is 'on the rolls.'
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Don't try looking on any government websites. It's been expunged.
Labor loves memory holes as much as the Coalition.
Which is a disgrace, as far as Labor is concerned. It is the government. Gov.au sites should not airbrush history.
So I'll help out.
Here's the tax you are meant to think never was: Read more »
Someone had better tell Tony Abbott about the price of cheese.
From Coalition headquarters yesterday came another press release about prices, this one quoting as an authority the Channel Nine Today show.
Apparently the TV station had priced a basket of groceries and found them up 10 per cent in a year.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics also prices groceries. It is extremely good at it using sampling and averaging techniques that would humble a politician or television show.
It's found the price of food up somewhat less - 1.4 per cent over the year, and actually down between the March and June quarters. Read more »
Unbelievable!
Normally every government policy costing sent to Finance and Treasury for election costing gets a pass. Why? Because, being the government, it has already got Finance and Treasury to cost it.
The Opposition has no such advantage and will almost inevitably find its costings rubbished by Finance and Treasury.
Except this time. See below from Tim Colebatch in today's Age. Read more »
Price Pressure?
In the three months to June
Food and liquor + 1.2%
Household goods - 1.0%
Clothes and shoes - 1.6%
Department stores - 0.8%
Total retail prices + 0.1%
The Reserve Bank has delivered the Gillard government a lower interest rate than it gave the Coalition in almost all of its eleven years in office. Read more »
Gillard and Abbott talk about restraining immigration and sound dinky di, but each is more representative of the changing nature of our population they would have us believe.
Whichever candidate takes office after the poll will be the first foreign-born Australian elected Prime Minister since at least John Gorton, and there's doubt about whether he was born in Melbourne or in Wellington, New Zealand. Read more »
A lot less than we care about a number of other things, most especially immigration.
Check out Google Election Trends. Bless them.
Related Posts
Finance and Treasury fire the starting gun
Australia's budget is shrinking, even as our politicians come up with new ways to spend it.
The official Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Outlook - released yesterday in accordance with the Charter of Budget Honesty - shows government finances down half a billion on the economic update released just 12 days earlier. Read more »
Did we get the debate we deserved?
Both leaders say they are concerned about the price of bread, but neither has much idea about how to restrain it.Abbott said he wouldn't promise a Grocery Choice website and he wouldn't run up government debt. Gillard said she wouldn't impose a new parental leave tax.
Perhaps they should go shopping. Read more »
It's Coalition policy:
If arguably meaningless. Net migration is sliding by the quarter.
REAL ACTION ON SUSTAINABLE POPULATION GROWTH
Australia needs a population that our services can satisfy, our infrastructure can support, our environment can sustain, our society can embrace, and our economy can employ.
Australia's population growth since World War II has helped create the prosperity we now enjoy. Successive waves of post-war migration have expanded our capacity as a nation. Read more »
Think of ice cream vendors:
Twelve years ago Australia's two great political machines marched into an election with sharply different economic programs. The Coalition would introduce a Goods and Services Tax, Labor would fight it the death. Australia voted for the GST.
Five years earlier there had been another stark choice, on that occasion between a GST with an unprecedented cut in government spending - literally a decimation, with 1 in every 10 dollars removed - and business as usual. On that occasion we chose business as usual.
But since then not a single important economic decision has been laid before us at an election. Read more »
Whoever wins the election will inherit an economy growing at well above its sustainable rate, making further interest rate rises inevitable according to the latest Westpac Melbourne Institute leading economic index.
The index purports to predict economic growth three to nine months into the future. It came in at 6.7 per cent in May, down from April's 7.5 per cent but still way in excess of Reserve Bank's view of a sustainable rate, believed to be about 3.25 per cent.
Driving the growth are improving international conditions and near-record minerals prices, but so extreme is the prediction that Westpac's chief economist says he doesn't fully believe it. Read more »
2010 LEADERS DEBATE
The Prime Minister Julia Gillard will debate the Leader of the Opposition Tony Abbott.
Location National Press Club of Australia, Canberra
Time 6:30 pm Sunday 25 July 2010
Duration 1 hour
1. The debate will be moderated by David Speers, Political Editor Sky News
2. The Leaders will be questioned by a panel of three (3) senior federal parliamentary journalists:
. Chris Uhlmann – Political Editor ABC News 24
. Laura Tingle – Political Editor Australian Financial Review
. Malcolm Farr – National Political Editor Daily Telegraph Read more »
Who wouldn't want to be debt-free?
It's what Tony Abbott wants; it's what Joe Hockey wants. Their latest mantra is "reduce the deficit, get rid of the debt".
And its what Wayne Swan wants. His Budget proudly predicts an end to government debt in seven years time, three years ahead of what had been expected.
(By the way, The Coalition isn't actually promising to pay off government debt materially sooner than Labor. Joe Hockey told me yesterday that he wasn't yet in a position to make such a promise. But you wouldn't know it from its rhetoric about the urgency of the task.) Read more »
Just sayin'
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COLES is importing cigarettes from Germany and selling them at discount prices to lure low-income smokers into its supermarkets.
The grocery giant has priced the ``home-brand-style'' packs of 25 cigarettes at around $11 almost $4 a pack less than Australian-made Winfield and other leading brands.
They are believed to be the cheapest on the market since the federal Government raised cigarette taxes by 25 per cent in April... Read more »
It's only begun
Tony Abbott has pledged to keep both prices and interest rates low in a move that will pressure Julia Gillard as inflation figures are interest rate decisions are released in the coming two weeks.
Ahead of an inflation figure due next week that financial markets expect to be high Mr Abbott said since Labor took office electricity prices had climbed 35 per cent, gas prices 24 per cent, water prices 29 per cent, bread 11 per cent and rents 15 per cent. Read more »
Stand Up for Australia (seriously):
Now where's that Liberal Party logo? Where's a mention?
Related Posts
She's moving forward, by the way
PRESS CONFERENCE
PARLIAMENT HOUSE, CANBERRA
17 JULY 2010
"Good afternoon Australians one and all.
Can I say good afternoon to members of the Canberra press gallery and at least say to them they’ll be relieved to know their days of standing on street corners waiting for the election to be called are over.
And can I say to Australians on the 24th of June I had the very great honour of becoming Prime Minister of this country, the greatest country of all. Read more »
Has there ever been a more vacant slogan?
Turn on the Lights, It's time, Bringing Australia together, Let's stick together... they had content.
But if it is to be "Moving forward," Labor will need a jingle.
With only a few modifications needed, I think I've found one.
It is vacant (of course) but it feels good: Read more »
That's Wednesday.
"I am able to say to the committee that it is my understanding that the Treasurer will shortly be putting more information into the public domain," he said.
Senator Cormann asked why if the Treasurer was going to release the information, couldn't Dr Henry provide it to the committee, to which Dr Henry replied:
"Well of course I'm very happy to ask the Treasurer whether he would be comfortable with me publishing the information today in this committee or whether he would prefer himself to publish the information," he said.
The inquiry took a five minute break for Dr Henry to seek instructions.
"I haven't spoken directly to the Treasurer myself but I have spoken with his staff and I can report that it is the Treasurer's intention to publish the information imminently" Read more »
If you want to read that sort of stuff, it's here
Ken Henry sidelined? Just about everyone seems to think so. And just about everyone is missing the point.
Partly it's the result of a cartoon view of the way government works, a belief that what's all important is the person rather than the institution. And partly it fails to acknowledge that the Treasury remains incredibly influential. Read more »
The Coalition made four kinds of mistakes in its costings according to the Treasury; the understandable, the inexcusable, the inexplicable, and those resulting from a failure to comprehend the nature of the process.
Although concealed from the public at the time of the vote, the decision of Andrew Wilkie to go with Labor on the basis of the costings suggests they've come at a price.
The inexcusable:
According to Treasury the Coalition counted the interest to be saved on debt from selling Medibank Private, but not the dividends it would lose as a result of the sale. It's a bit like deciding to selling a rental property without noticing you will no longer be able to collect the rent. Read more »
Fallout from the Coalition's "audited" costings
There's more than the outcome of an election hanging on the costing exercise now under way in the Treasury and Finance departments.
There’s also the future of two Perth-based accountants, the reputation of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, the public position of at least one high-profile academic institution, and the future of the entire auditing industry and the consultants who hang off it lending the name of auditors to unaudited and unverified political documents. Read more »
Peter's post:
From Abbott just now:
COALITION POLICY COSTINGS
The Coalition maintains that our election policies will deliver a Budget bottom line that is improved by more than $11 billion over the forward estimates. Read more »
Shane Wright in the West Australian:
The last mining boom helped lift the entire WA economy.
But there are signs that mining boom mark II may be different, with a growing threat that key parts of the economy – and the people employed in those sectors – could be left behind.
Since several major elements of the Federal Government’s stimulus program ended with the new year and the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates the WA economy has shown signs of strain. Read more »
Mainly because it'll probably keep you in work
Aged 18 and looking for an investment that'll return far more than the share market, far more than real estate?
Enrol at university and stay there for four years.
An analysis of a quarter of a century of census data released by the Bureau of Statistics reveals extraordinary rates of return for the lost wages and expenses involved in obtaining a four-year degree - all the more so if you are a woman. Read more »
Prime Minister Friday August 27:
PM: Can I thank everybody for coming along. As people are aware the Independents, Mr Windsor, Mr Oakeshott and Mr Katter sought access to the costings of the Government’s and Opposition’s election policies and the impact that has on the Budget bottom line. Of course the Budget bottom line was most recently disclosed in the Pre-Election Fiscal Outlook.
I sought advice from the Secretary of Prime Minister and Cabinet on that matter, and it was apparent from that advice, that it would require amending the Caretaker Conventions as we have generally known them to be. Read more »
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| RBS Group (Australia) |
And Abbott, who said the tax would kill the industry "stone dead"?
Australian mining executives appear to have been saying one thing and doing another as they negotiated with the government over the resource super profits tax during May and June. Read more »
Usually it's the other way around:
You've got a week.
And it would probably help to live in (north) Canberra.
Related Posts
And offers a fixed term, with the date for the next election selected now, and a briefing on broadband from the NBN Co: Read more »
While we were preparing to vote
"The nation has been informed in the last few minutes by the Acting Chief of the Defence Force that two Australian soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan, two soldiers have been wounded. The soldiers killed are Tomas Dale and Grant Kirby.
Their families have received the worst news families could get. The shock of it, the violence of it, the loss of it will obviously be bearing very heavily on them today."
Here's a photo of Defence Minister John Faulkner and others at last month's funeral for Private Tim Aplin: Read more »
Go to belowtheline.org.au and work it out.
Then print it out, take it with you, and vote.
And take comfort from the words of my much-missed colleague Andrew Olle. Read more »
What about all NewStart and other spending it saved?
Peter Whiteford reckons that by spending high (3rd highest), we ended up spending relatively low (11th lowest).
Paper below.
Oh, and here's David Gruen of the Treasury:
It is worth providing a brief summary of some of the benefits of avoiding a recession that would not be relevant if a recession was instead simply an equilibrium market outcome. Read more »
Is that it? But you'd have to trust him, right
The Coalition's twelve pages of costings - said to save the budget $11.5 billion - are not costings in the traditional sense. Read more »
Fat chance, in time for the election.
Labor is switching its focus to jobs ahead of employment figures due out Thursday likely to provide it with a life line ahead of its official campaign launch Monday.
All but 2 of the 20 market economists surveyed by Reuters expect Australia's official unemployment rate to come in at 5.1 per cent or less on Thursday. The only dissenters expect an updated rate of 5.2 per cent, a mere fraction above the present 5.1 which is the lowest since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Read more »
The Reserve Bank has called into question the Treasury forecasts that were used to seal the deal with the mining companies that paved the way for the election.
When Prime Minister Gillard announced the deal on July 2 she said it would cost the budget only $1.5 billion - even though it effectively halved the proposed mining tax rate and exempted most mining companies. Read more »
Come to think of it, it would be a money-saver.
Who needs the ABS when Channel Nine produces better figures?
This bizarre press release, out of kilter with reality as measured by the ABS seems to have disappeared from or never been put onthe Coalition website.
(Oddly, one that is on the website is entitled Labor's Spin Exposed - Grocery Price Scare Campaign '100% Crap'. The Liberal's Grocery Price Scare Campaign is also 100% Crap, and I suspect they know it.)
Anyway, here is is, rescued from the memory hole:
Would they behave this way in government? Read more »
(The miners have shut down Keep Mining Strong, but apparently it was touch and go - no bonanza to be shared)
A surge in mining income has driven Australia's trade surplus to an all-time high, beating the previous record by more $1 billion. Read more »
Listen up
Julia Gillard is right. Althoucagh ridiculed, never put to Cabinet, apparently abandoned by the new-look Gillard herself and awarded first prize in The Chaser's Cash for Policy Clunkers contest, her promise of a 150-person citizens assembly to consider climate change has a compelling logic.
As she put it a fortnight back when she thought the idea was a winner: "You can’t create a circumstance where our economy transforms because you have put a cap on carbon pollution and then three years later we have a new government come in and sweep it all away and then three years later you have a new government come in and put a cap back on. We can’t do that. We need a deep and lasting consensus." Read more »
Gerry Harvey has a word for labor's incredibly stupid claim:
"That’s crap. It is 100% crap. It’s like saying that Harvey Norman will put up the price of our fridges or something like that. Well, look, we won’t. The tax rate is the tax rate. We’re trying to make a profit before tax."
Here he is with Janine Perrett on Sky News:
"Janine Perrett: We’re seeing changes to the Coalition’s parental leave Read more »
I took part in an ANU/ABC forum Monday night.
It's title was Beyond the Spin: Financial crises, resource taxes and budget deficit.
The audio is here.
Have a listen, especially to the answers to Question 1 - about the role of the media and organsiations such as the ABC. Read more »
Mark Latham in the Financial Review:
Just as her coup against Rudd was organised by the NSW right-wing machine, Gillard's campaign is being similarly directed. Its key personnel – her chief-of-staff, Amanda Lampe, her campaign manager, Karl Bitar, and Labor's senior strategists, Mark Arbib and Bruce Hawker, all learnt their trade sitting at the feet of the long-serving NSW Premier, Bob Carr.
The Carr brand is based on five strategic ploys. Let's look at how Labor has used them over the past month. Read more »
Low inflation has knocked the stuffing out of the debt/deficit/doom campaign
Julia Gillard will go the polls with the ultimate economic double -- both falling inflation and falling unemployment after a surprise dive in inflation removed the prospect of higher mortgage rates in the lead-up to the election.
The Reserve Bank board meeting will vote to leave interest rates on hold Tuesday after the closely-watched underlying rate of inflation slid to 2.7 per cent, the first time it has been below 3 per cent and within the Bank's target band for three years. Read more »
Finance and Treasury fire the starting gun
Australia's budget is shrinking, even as our politicians come up with new ways to spend it.
The official Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Outlook - released yesterday in accordance with the Charter of Budget Honesty - shows government finances down half a billion on the economic update released just 12 days earlier. Read more »
CommSec: Our biggest state might be bleak without it
Population growth is the only bright spot in an in an otherwise bleak assessment of the NSW economy which rates it number 7 out of Australia's 8 states and territories - a distinction it shares with Queensland.
This morning's Commonwealth Securities "State of the States" report ranks NSW the worst or second-worst state when it comes to economic growth, retail spending, employment, construction activity and dwelling starts. Read more »
Doubt it, but here's how it used to be:
And they do like each other. Here's Chris Uhlmann.
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And then I noticed this blossom:
Spring is on the way
Rest in peace
JEAN POOLE
A life well lived
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. John Vincent is dead. He can't be.
Mmmm... Part of me thinks she's right, most of me thinks she's wrong. We have talked about it (see Bernard Keane below)
Rudd got Garnaut to write a report about it, Howard got Shergold to write a report about it
BUILDING CONSENSUS IN THE COMMUNITY Read more »
From 7.30 pm here, live 24 hours TV News on the internet, ABC News 24
Max out your bandwidth! It's a first.
And the new Fairfax live minute by minute account is up and running at The Pulse.
Also recommended:
Related Posts Read more »
Governor Glenn Stevens, here - audio that you can read along with, thanks to the wonderful work of the Reserve Bank.
Listen especially for the first question, and the laughter that precedes his answer.
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Tony Abbott, Tuesday.
"We’ve got $57 billion worth of deficit and heading towards $90 billion worth of debt."
How many billion?
What was the figure painted on the side of your debt truck just 18 months ago?
And he doesn't think much of Tony Abbott's economics - more on that below
The Reserve Bank has prepared the way for a extraordinary mid-campaign rate hike, spelling out in unprecedented detail the triggers that will make it move when its board next meets in 13 days time.
The board's minutes - released as the Coalition declared interest rates central to its campaign - for the first time include a staff forecast of the inflation rate the Bank expects when the official figures are released next Wednesday and say if it is not met a hike is on the cards. Read more »
'Spose every bit helps Read more »
For five weeks our public service will serve us, not them
From the moment government enters caretaker mode at 6.00 pm eastern time today our economic landscape will be beyond the power of politicians to influence.
The Reserve Bank board will consider interest rates two weeks from tomorrow with Treasury Secretary Ken Henry in attendance. But in a reversal of the usual procedure Dr Henry will nether discuss the decision with his Treasurer nor seek the Mr Swan's view as to how he should vote. Read more »
Congratulations Gladys Wise.
She received a letter from Abbott and a letter from Gillard on her 100th birthday.
So, who writes the best letter?
HT: 3AW
The Parliamentary Library can tell you by
. age,
. gender,
. religion,
. ethnicity,
. income,
. education,
. family status,
. housing type, and
. employment status.
Cool, eh? Read more »
Swan said it was appropriate to provide an economic update partly because we have a new Prime Minister and partly to tell us about "moving the economy forward".
Why did he really do it? Well it wasn't (as you might think) to make a clean breast of the mining tax finances.
(And by the way, as I foreshadowed, it will make a motza)
It was because 10 days after writs are issued for the election the Treasury and Finance will release the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook - PEFO. Read more »
Thursday next week, July 22.
"The ABC is pleased to announce that ABC News 24 – Australia’s first free-to-air, 24-hour digital news service – will start broadcasting at 7.30pm AEST, Thursday 22nd July, right across the country.
These service will be on display during ‘ABC News 24 Launch – ABC News Special’ – a national program airing on ABC1 at 7.30pm, and simulcast on ABC News 24 at 7.30pm AEST, on Thursday 22nd July." Read more »
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