Andrew Bolt has been banging on about Africans again- Sudanese and Somalian born Africans in particular and their crime rates compared to the Victorian population as a whole. Read more »
Andrew Bolt has been banging on about Africans again- Sudanese and Somalian born Africans in particular and their crime rates compared to the Victorian population as a whole. Read more »
With Essential Report coming back to the field this week to join the 55/45 two party preferred brigade, and with Galaxy joining the fray with the same, our Pollytrack series has crunched back towards the Coalition (the figures can be seen in the sidebar on the right) Read more »
This was me in the Crikey mail earlier today.
The real economy is lukewarm to tepid, but not dead.
For a country supposedly in the middle of an economic crisis so grave that it cannot be described without the obligatory passing mention of the Great Depression, yesterday’s ABS retail turnover figures were hardly the stuff of nightmares. Read more »
Nielsen and Galaxy came out today, both having the TPP vote at 55/45 for Labor, which makes all the phone polls including Newspoll saying the same thing on the two party preferred.
The Primary vote for Nielsen comes in at 45 (down 1)/39 (steady) to the ALP while Galaxy has it at 43/40. It’s good to see Galaxy join the fray and I hope it makes a regular appearance since its historical slight relative lean toward the Coalition helps balance out the ALP relative lean we are seeing with Morgan and Essential. Read more »
Just a quick heads up to the folks that google “pollytics” or various spellings of possum comitatus to get here - now all you have to do is type pollytics.com into your browser and everything will be sweet.
We’ve been looking at house effects of the pollsters in our pursuit of better polling aggregations lately, but rather than looking at each Pollster individually, it might be worth looking at the results of Australian pollsters grouped by methodology. Read more »
Another thread to dump any requests you might have, or data you might like to see or analysis you think would be interesting and spiffy.
Sometimes it might take me a few weeks or even months to either do the analysis (or figure out a way to do the analysis) or even just to get the data to enable it, and there’s times when the data isn’t available to do some of the requests.
But so saying, you never know until you try. Read more »
Another Tuesday, another Newspoll and the usual charts can be seen on the Pollytrack page and the Polling Charts page.
The results of 55/45 coming off primaries of 44/38 is pretty much business as usual.
And THAT is the story.
If we run a simple linear regression through the ALP two party preferred results of all pollsters since July 1st, this is what we get. Read more »
I’m rejigging the site a bit, and a new page has been added - The Polls.
It shows every Federal Poll in a table format (so it can easily be copied and pasted as text into any spreadsheet for your tragic psephy pleasure) since January 1 this year. It has the primary and TPP votes, as well as the sample size, pollster and date. The dates are given as the last day the polling was taken in the field except for EMC which is given as the Monday the poll was released. Read more »
Far too long ago, a new (ahem) “regular” feature was launched to supplement Nerdy Sunday – Requestathon where you folks can make requests about how polling and electoral data plays out with other things. Today we’ll start to get some answers for those requests.
Dave55 asked: Read more »
We seemingly have to wait a few days before we get to see the US election results that approach the accuracy we need to run some numbers, so in the meantime there was some State Newspolling released the other day that it’s probably time we had a squiz at.
But first – if you look over to the right in the sidebar and scroll down to the primary vote charts of the States, the Coalition is in front on the primary vote in every State, and with QLD, VIC and SA it happened in the latest poll.
First up NSW: Read more »
Ralph Nader’s final poke in the eye to the Democrats – it looks like he cost them Missouri.
McCain leads in Nebraska’s second congressional district by 589 votes, yet there are 9000 early and provisional votes to be counted. The extra single Electoral College vote might not be known for weeks. Read more »
Not telling you anything new here, but Obama won with what looks like 364 EV’s- the number Intrade predicted this morning although Indiana and Missouri swapped. Read more »
23 weeks ago we started tracking Intrade on a weekly basis as our measure of how the US Election was playing out where at the time the probability for a Democrat victory was running at 62% with 293 projected Electoral College votes for Obama. Today we come to our final Intrade Monday where the headline market gives an 88.5% probability of victory, our State market simulations have now climbed to a 99.977% win probability and the projected Electoral College votes are sitting around the 353 mark.
To start with will have a squiz at the daily trackers: Read more »
If you were to see a chart like this, what would pop into your mind? (Now that you’ve read the title of the post, you probably don’t need to buy a vowel here)
If we all close our eyes, focus our minds and pretend really hard – all my moving boxes might miraculously unpack themselves and it might also seem like Monday.
The belated penultimate weekly roundup of the Intrade figures is pretty much more of the same, with once contested states continuing to push out in their probabilities to make them close to Democrat certainties, and a few new Republican states moving into the contested battleground. The key feature this week is how the probabilities have changed over the last 7 days: Read more »
As you could probably imagine, this place gets all sorts or requests to look at various bits of polling data, or to compare some voting intention against some economic indicator - right through to some snarky requests involving the extraction of various body parts from various orifices. Read more »
The weekly Intrade analysis continues to show the Democrats improving both their win probabilities and EV numbers in the Intrade markets – yet over the last few days a holding pattern has developed suggesting that this might well be the end of any major movement we’ll see between now and Election Day.
If we look at how the weekly probabilities and the weekly Electoral College estimates come out we get: Read more »
Antony Green goes through the history of swings in NSW by-elections. Read more »
Another Monday, another weekly Intrade data round up and it’s pretty much game over.
To start with we’ll run through the daily trackers: Read more »
The latest Essential Report has been released with the ALP leading on the primary vote 47 (steady) to the Coalition 36 (up 1) for a TPP of 58/42 (steady). The Essential Report polling charts look like this: Read more »
Andrew Leigh and compatriot Mark McLeish have released a new paper titled “Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Evidence from Australia.” which is definitely worth a read. The media release states: Read more »
With a new Morgan F2F out today and an EMC out Monday, we have a full big sample set for the latest post-Turnbull vote estimates and it looks like Truffle’s souffle has sunk. Read more »
We all know that the various state Labor governments are a bit on the nose, you only have to click the State polling down the right hand side here to see it in full swing. Read more »
This Nerdy Sunday was going to be a comparison of various smoothing algorithms for polling data as requested by Labor Outsider , but I realised yesterday that we have only 40 days to go until E-Day in the US and that the time was nigh to start adjusting the certainty of out State market simulations of the Intrade data – so sorry about that LO, we’ll save the smoothing for next week. Read more »
Here’s something belatedly interesting – a Nielsen Online poll using their Your Voice panel from October. Read more »
This was me in the Crikey mail earlier today.
The real economy is lukewarm to tepid, but not dead.
For a country supposedly in the middle of an economic crisis so grave that it cannot be described without the obligatory passing mention of the Great Depression, yesterday’s ABS retail turnover figures were hardly the stuff of nightmares. Read more »
Nielsen and Galaxy came out today, both having the TPP vote at 55/45 for Labor, which makes all the phone polls including Newspoll saying the same thing on the two party preferred.
The Primary vote for Nielsen comes in at 45 (down 1)/39 (steady) to the ALP while Galaxy has it at 43/40. It’s good to see Galaxy join the fray and I hope it makes a regular appearance since its historical slight relative lean toward the Coalition helps balance out the ALP relative lean we are seeing with Morgan and Essential. Read more »
Just a quick heads up to the folks that google “pollytics” or various spellings of possum comitatus to get here - now all you have to do is type pollytics.com into your browser and everything will be sweet.
We’ve been looking at house effects of the pollsters in our pursuit of better polling aggregations lately, but rather than looking at each Pollster individually, it might be worth looking at the results of Australian pollsters grouped by methodology. Read more »
Another thread to dump any requests you might have, or data you might like to see or analysis you think would be interesting and spiffy.
Sometimes it might take me a few weeks or even months to either do the analysis (or figure out a way to do the analysis) or even just to get the data to enable it, and there’s times when the data isn’t available to do some of the requests.
But so saying, you never know until you try.
Another Tuesday, another Newspoll and the usual charts can be seen on the Pollytrack page and the Polling Charts page.
The results of 55/45 coming off primaries of 44/38 is pretty much business as usual.
And THAT is the story.
If we run a simple linear regression through the ALP two party preferred results of all pollsters since July 1st, this is what we get. Read more »
I’m rejigging the site a bit, and a new page has been added - The Polls.
It shows every Federal Poll in a table format (so it can easily be copied and pasted as text into any spreadsheet for your tragic psephy pleasure) since January 1 this year. It has the primary and TPP votes, as well as the sample size, pollster and date. The dates are given as the last day the polling was taken in the field except for EMC which is given as the Monday the poll was released. Read more »
Far too long ago, a new (ahem) “regular” feature was launched to supplement Nerdy Sunday – Requestathon where you folks can make requests about how polling and electoral data plays out with other things. Today we’ll start to get some answers for those requests.
Dave55 asked: Read more »
We seemingly have to wait a few days before we get to see the US election results that approach the accuracy we need to run some numbers, so in the meantime there was some State Newspolling released the other day that it’s probably time we had a squiz at.
But first – if you look over to the right in the sidebar and scroll down to the primary vote charts of the States, the Coalition is in front on the primary vote in every State, and with QLD, VIC and SA it happened in the latest poll.
First up NSW: Read more »
We seemingly have to wait a few days before we get to see the US election results that approach the accuracy we need to run some numbers, so in the meantime there was some State Newspolling released the other day that it’s probably time we had a squiz at.
But first – if you look over to the right in the sidebar and scroll down to the primary vote charts of the States, the Coalition is in front on the primary vote in every State, and with QLD, VIC and SA it happened in the latest poll.
First up NSW: Read more »
Ralph Nader’s final poke in the eye to the Democrats – it looks like he cost them Missouri.
McCain leads in Nebraska’s second congressional district by 589 votes, yet there are 9000 early and provisional votes to be counted. The extra single Electoral College vote might not be known for weeks. Read more »
This was a little ditty I wrote for Crikey earlier today.
With five days remaining until the US Election is finally over, the polls paint the picture of a large Republican defeat.
Starting with the national tracking poll data using the brilliant Pollster.com loess regression trend lines, the headline numbers show an ever so slight narrowing in the headline horse race over the last week. Read more »
This week’s Pollytrack has a new Newspoll and EMC poll to throw into the mix, and the results show a continuation of Coalition decline, with Truffles taking them back to the polling position they enjoyed not only two weeks before the Turnbull ascension, but to the same position they had in June.
First up, the usual charts and data. Read more »
I’ve been moving house over the weekend and as a result a few posts have become a little delayed. Everything shall start flowing again tomorrow including the weekly Intrade roundup, Pollytrack and the Requestathon answers.
But I have discovered life’s biggest question - why is it that you never really comprehend how much crap you own until you have to pack it into boxes?
The latest Essential Report has been released (which we’ll get to in a minute) and allows us to update our Pollytrack series for where public opinion was last week.
Previously I had stated that Malcolm Turnbull would be Mark Latham in a Fioravanti suit.
I was wrong. Read more »
Our monthly Nielsen of polling goodness comes in today with the ALP up 5 and the Coalition down 3 on the primaries to come in at 46/39 which washes into a Two Party Preferred of 56/44 to Labor – with the ALP up 4 from last month.
Running through the Approval Ratings and Preferred PM we get: Read more »
Today we have a Newspoll out to go with our Essential Report of yesterday. On the Newspoll front we have the the primaries running Labor’s way 41/38 (ALP down 1, Coalition steady) for a steady TPP of 55/45. On the Essential Report side of things we have the primaries running Labor’s way 44/37 (ALP down 3, Coalition up 1) for a TPP of 57/43 (Coalition up 1). Read more »
With Obama going ballistic in The Daily Gallup/Intrade trackers, an interesting question to ask might be the size of the Democrat’s Electoral College vote ceiling for the election, as well as its likely EV floor. First up though, the trackers: Read more »
No Newspoll today for some reason, so instead a quick comparative look between polling and Intrade trends for estimating the number of Electoral College votes for each party in the US Election. There is an excellent site on the US election called the Princeton Election Consortium which does quite brilliant things with polling data from Electoral-Vote. Read more »
Click here to view the embedded video.
Today we’ll have a bit of a squiz at the various types of smoothing algorithms regularly used to produce “lines of best fit” for polling data. Read more »
The latest quarterly Newspoll breakdown has been released today, so we’ll plug all of the data in from these quarterly polls to give us time series charts going back to the beginning of 2007.
(just click the charts to expand)
ALP Primary Vote by State and Demographic Read more »
It’s time for the weekly Intrade roundup for the US Election, so first up we’ll have a look at how the Electoral College vote and Democrat win probabilities have been playing out compared to the Gallup daily tracking poll. Read more »
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