Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
I have lately gotten into the habit of providing a bulletin of recent electoral news along with the regular Friday Roy Morgan poll, but for whatever reason Morgan failed to come to the party last week. This is also an off-week for Newspoll, so the following will have to make do on their own:
• In [...]
Newspoll yesterday released its bi-monthly survey of Victorian state voting intention, in which a 1 per cent primary vote shift from the Coalition (down to 36 per cent) to Labor (up to 44 per cent) somehow translated into a two-party swing from 56-44 to 58-42. Both leaders have gone backwards on personal approval: John Brumby’s [...]
NOTE: This post will be progressively updated until polling day to take note of campaign developments.
The Gippsland federal by-election has been officially set for June 28, the first of what is likely to be a series of unwelcome electoral tests for the opposition. This one follows the departure of the seat’s member since 1983, Howard [...]
Slate presents the Democratic race in seven (and a half) minutes.
The West Australian today carries a “snap” Westpoll survey of 413 voters showing 50 per cent think the beleagured Troy Buswell should resign as state Opposition Leader following the revelation of his chair-sniffing indiscretion. The poll also has Buswell in third place as preferred Liberal leader with 12 per cent support, behind former leaders Matt [...]
Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, [...]
The latest Newspoll shows an increase in Labor’s federal two-party lead to 61-39 from 59-41 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 73-9 to 71-10. No word yet on the Liberal leadership preference questions which Newspoll was apparently asking respondents over the weekend (see the [...]
A merciful mid-campaign lull precluded the need for a “minus two weeks” thread, but things are well and truly picking up again now. Real Clear Politics’ Pennsylvania Democratic poll average has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47.4 per cent to 40.4 per cent, which is not as much as she would like. However, the most [...]
The first federal Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 59-41. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has widened from 60 per cent to 64 per cent, having gone 73-7 to 70-10 to 73-9 over the past there surveys.
Morgan’s latest survey combines two sets of phone polling conducted in the middle of this week and last week, producing an unusually large sample of 2231. Normally their phone poll figures consist of only one such set of polling. It shows Labor leading 60.5-39.5 per cent on two-party preferred – down from 61-39 at the [...]
Thrilling news for by-election fans: Peter McGauran, who has held the eastern Victorian seat of Gippsland for the Nationals since 1983, has told the Herald-Sun he will announce his retirement today, confirming rumours of the past week. It has long been thought that McGauran’s departure could see the electorate go the way of Murray and [...]
Newspoll’s latest quarterly survey of Western Australian state voting intention provides more bad news for new Liberal leader Troy Buswell, with Labor opening up a 53-47 two-party lead after trailing 49-51 in the final poll on previous Liberal leader Paul Omodei’s watch. Labor’s primary vote is up 2 per cent to 42 per cent with [...]
Conservative pundit Andrew Bolt has shut up shop on his prolific Herald Sun blogging activities with a cryptic “announcement from the seat of Higgins”:
Stephen Mayne has been onto this story for a while, and for once he’s close to the truth (from the linked article, written in 2006: “Maybe Bolt’s main chance will be in [...]
As Barack Obama weathers the Reverend Jeremiah Wright controversy, Hillary Clinton misspeaks. Compare and contrast …
That non-existent Morgan poll discussed in the previous post has now shown its face four days behind schedule. The phone survey of an unusually small sample of 618 respondents supports last week’s Newspoll finding that some of the gloss has come off Labor’s lead, which is at 47 per cent to 37 per cent on [...]
After yesterday’s North Carolina landslide and Indiana cliffhanger, most commentators have upgraded Barack Obama’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination from likely to (almost) certain. The next stage in the contest, assuming it gets that far, is next week’s primary for West Virginia, at which 28 delegates will be elected through a “modified” primary open [...]
The Australian reports tomorrow’s Newspoll will have Labor’s two-party lead at a relatively modest 57-43. However, Liberal hopes of positive headlines have been dashed by a preferred prime minister rating showing Brendan Nelson back in single figures at 9 per cent, compared with 72 per cent for Kevin Rudd.
6.05pm. Round about now, polls are closing in today’s periodical Tasmanian upper house elections, where sitting independents Paul Harriss and Kerry Finch are certain to be re-elected in Huon and Rosevears respectively. Huon covers southern Tasmanian coastline south-west of Hobart; Rosevears includes the western suburbs of Launceston and extends north-west to the mouth of the [...]
This week’s Morgan poll is a face-to-face survey combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face polling, producing a large sample of 1891 voters. Labor leads 61.5-38.5 on two-party preferred (with Labor down 1 per cent on last week’s phone poll and 0.5 per cent on the previous face-to-face), and 54.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent [...]
Newspoll has released a survey of New South Wales state voting intention, showing Labor pulling ahead to a narrow two-party lead in March-April after the parties were locked together on 50-50 in January-March. However, the headline figure is Morris Iemma’s satisfaction rating of 28 per cent, which is the lowest recorded for a Premier of [...]
This post will be progressively updated to follow the count in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, starting from when I get out of bed (by which time it might well be all over). Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows a slight narrowing in Hillary Clinton’s lead since last week, from 47.4-40.4 to 49.5-43.4.
11.30am AEST. CNN reports [...]
Morgan has released two sets of federal poll results: a mid-week phone poll of 765 respondents, and a face-to-face poll of 897 respondents conducted last weekened. Morgan has gone against normal practice by using “preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” for the headline two-party measure for the phone poll, which puts Labor’s [...]
The latest Morgan phone poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening to 63.5-36.5 from 60.5-39.5 last week. I believe this is a record for a Morgan phone poll, while not quite matching face-to-face polls from earlier in the year which put it at 65-35 and 64.5-35.5.
The latest quarterly Newspoll survey of South Australian state voting intention has Labor’s lead at 53-47, its lowest in three years. This compares with 56.8-43.2 at Mike Rann’s landslide re-election in March 2006. Labor’s primary vote lead is 41 per cent to 37 per cent: on both measures the two parties have exchanged 1 per [...]
The Australian reports Newspoll’s quarterly survey of Queensland state voting intention has Labor leading the Coalition 60-40 on two-party preferred, up from 59-41 in the October-December survey. The Liberals are down from 26 per cent to 22 per cent and the Nationals, who switched leaders from Jeff Seeney to Lawrence Springborg on January 21, are [...]
Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
Tasmanian pollster EMRS has published a survey of 853 committed voters on state voting intention, which shows Labor on 39 per cent (down 1 per cent from May 2007), the Liberals on 37 per cent (up 2 per cent) and the Greens on 22 per cent (up 1 per cent) (hat tip: Steve). Under the [...]
The latest Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s lead at 63.5-36.5 – down from the record-breaking 65-35 at the previous such poll early in the month, but up from 61-39 at the phone poll conducted a fortnight ago. Other conversation starters:
• Special Minister of State John Faulkner has announced a package of electoral reforms confirming moves [...]
Blogotariat is a platform to enhance the role of blog commentary and its growing influence on Mainstream Media and the political process – the great contest of ideas essential to a civil society. If you wish to contribute editorially or add your blog please use the Contact menu to send some info.
