A few days ago I posted that WA Liberal leader Troy Buswell's was politically finished. The problem for Mr Buswell is that, after the now infamous chair sniffing revelations, the media have tagged him a walking joke, and everything he says or does from now on will be interpreted through that prism. Read more »
There is a broad assumption in the analysis of electoral and campaign politics in Australia that both the major parties (the ALP and the Liberal/National coalition) enjoy a "base vote"; that is, voters who will vote for a party just about no matter what. Campaigns, the wisdom holds, are very much about attracting the group in the middle that have the propensity to "swing" between the major parties. Read more »
Well, WA Liberal head, Troy Buswell, has stared down the leadership spill and will continue to lead the party. I predicted below that he is finished politically, and despite surviving so far I just can't see it continuing. Read more »
Diverting for a moment from Tasmanian politics, to WA which is the next state to hold an election (sometime before May 2009).
I imagine readers here by now would have heard of Liberal opposition leader Tony Buswell's chair sniffing escapade. As the politics and mechanics of winning from opposition are a special interest of mine, I offer the following observations: Read more »
Me in the Mercury 23 April on the pending sale of "Heritage Square" (no web link available): Read more »
It is not always easy to get socio-economic data for Tasmania. Here the ABS has broken down the 2006 census data by all 150 Australian electorates, which is very useful information.TIP: You only need to open up the spreadsheet once. If you scroll along the tabs at the bottom you will see that all 40-odd tables are on the one Excel file.
The next Tasmanian election will of course be fought, like all elections since the late 1970’s, around one central issue – majority versus minority government.Forget about health, education or government propriety; how each party handles this one issue will largely determine its fate. Read more »
I agree with Assoc Professor Richard Herr's observation that neither major party can really take too much from the polls. See Richard reported in the Mercury and the Examiner today. Read more »
Got a beef? Wouldn't it be handy if you could just phone your local politician anytime - even better on his/her mobile?But where do you get a politician's mobile number from? Surely that would be kept from the hoi polloi? Read more »
It annoys the you-know-what out of many people eager for change that that change just does not come quickly enough. By way of illustration, read the strident (although all too often pious) contributions on just about any issue over at Tasmaniantimes.com. Read more »
Recent posts on the distribution of members of parliament have caused a degree of feedback. The main table shows all Tasmanian members from both state and federal chambers, sorted by party and location of electoral offices.
The information in summary is the most revealing. Below you can see how, relatively, Labor are stronger in the south than the north. Read more »
Me and Dr Kevin Bonham in a co-authored piece over at Tasmanian Times: Read more »
Never make the opposition leader the story.Yes, another political cliché but it exists for a good reason.Governments in modern politics have a huge advantage. They have the money to “pork-barrell”, they can control the media cycle, and because of the fact that they are the government, they get to make decisions and put them into action. The best oppositions can do, it often seems, is carp from the sidelines. Read more »
If we had optional preferential voting at federal elections, Bass would have been retained by the Liberals, conjectures Peter Brent.Big call.Most Australians would not realise that the electoral systems used by each of our fifteen (yes, 15!) houses of parliament are all different from each other to some degree. A major difference is that in some preferential voting is optional, in some it is partial and in some compulsory. Confused? So are most voters. Read more »
Hot on the heals of the Tasmanian Electoral Commission's review of the Legislative Council boundaries, the Australian Electoral Commission has announced a redistribution of the federal divisions.The Poll Bludger has a discussion going if you want to join in.
Every nine years the Tasmanian Electoral Commission enters into a process to adjust the boundaries of the 15 Legislative Council divisions to allow for population changes. Serious wonks can read up on the whole process here.The rest of us can go straight to the map which shows fairly clearly what is proposed. (Click for a larger image.) Read more »
The Tasmanian premier, Paul Lennon, pulled off a huge shock this week by going naked – figuratively anyway. He shed himself of all ministerial responsibilities and will now be premier without portfolio.This is almost unheard of in modern-day state politics. Apparently we have to go back to the 1930s to find another instance of a Tassie premier without a specific portfolio. Read more »
A bit more to add from previous comments on the just completed federal election.William Bowe's brief wrap on the Tasmanian outcome is here. Read more »
Is this the first call? If so, it won't be the last for the outgoing federal member for Bass.I have never met Mr Ferguson so can not comment on him as a person. But he is a strong electoral performer, as his effort in restricting the swing against him to 3.5 percent or so at the election indicates. Most analysts, including me, were expecting perhaps seven or eight percent given the national mood towards Labor. In addition, Mr Ferguson had the anti-pulp mill vote going against him. Read more »
Some very quick post election thoughts.Pretty much went as expected. I predicted Labor would win 85 seats and look to be pretty close with the ABC computer putting it at 88. I also correctly predicted five Labor seats in Tasmania. Michael Ferguson did better than expected for the Libs in Bass, without winning. More on this in a few days.UPDATE 29/11/2007: Antony Green at the ABC now predicts 85 seats to Labor, with 81.5% of the vote counted. Read more »
Mike Blake's 2007 report to parliament was tabled this week.Go here if you want the full report or, if you are like me and time is short, get the executive summary here.Interesting snippets include: Read more »
The Federal Parliament's library produce a chain of fabulous, indispensable research papers for the pollie junkie.
Bookmark this page http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/index.htm which will take you to the index page. It includes an archive going back 13 years. Read more »
And lo, it came to pass. Without any surprise at all, two incumbents were re-elected to the Legislative Council. Paul Harriss (Huon) and Kerry Finch (Rosevears) can continue as upper house members until 2014. Read more »
The second part of a two-part piece, co-authored by me and Dr Kevin Bonham, on this Saturday's Leg Council elections is up over at Tasmanian Times.We see no reason to believe that both sitting members, Paul Harriss in Huon and Kerry Finch in Rosevears, will not be returned.
Sue Neales had a great item in the Mercury on Saturday about how the appointment of new deputy premier, David Bartlett, came to pass. She clearly has good sources from within the ALP, and it is interesting having a glimpse inside the party.Ms Neales hasn't always been 100% correct in the past, but it's a cracking read anyway. And a very funny Kudelka cartoon into the bargain. (Click on the image to enlarge.) Read more »
Reports recently that the state government intends to sell off a prime development block, bounded by Murray Street, Davey Street, Salamanca Place and Parliament House, is great news because now, after too many years of neglect and inaction from both Liberal and Labor governments, something appears to be happening Read more »
I’ve held back on posting on the whole Kons saga to let the dust settle a bit. When things like this happen in politics, events occur so quickly that there is little to do other than report the news. And I guess those who read this site are interested enough in politics to follow the daily media, so there wasn’t much for me to add.
But now Steve Kons has gone and David Bartlett has been promoted to deputy premier it is time to take stock. That is not to say that this story has finished. Read more »
The ABS has released demographic figures for Tasmania, by local government resident population as at 30 June 2007.The Mercury and the Examiner covered the news, both emphasising that Brighton is the fastest growing municipal area in the state with 3.2% growth over 12 months. (You will need a subscription and 20 cents to access the Examiner story on-line.) Read more »
Me trying to make a dry subject sound interesting on Stateline last Friday. Read more »
What's in a name? That which we call Paterson by any other name would smell as sweet.Apologies to the Bard. Read more »
Recent posts on the distribution of members of parliament have caused a degree of feedback. The main table shows all Tasmanian members from both state and federal chambers, sorted by party and location of electoral offices.
The information in summary is the most revealing. Below you can see how, relatively, Labor are stronger in the south than the north. Read more »
An Online Opinion piece on the change in the political landscape in Australia over the past decade. It brings together various posts I've made on this site into a longer, (hopefully) more coherent essay.
Read the full text here.
This is the second time I've used this headline. Back in July 2006 - nearly two years ago, and before the criminal trial was proposed - I asked the same question. My conclusion back then was "not necessarily" and my view still stands for very much the same reasons.
There are three factors favouring Mr Green continuing in politics. Read more »
A bit of a cliché, maybe, but under compulsory preferential voting it couldn't be truer. Read more »
The sheep have decided to let the cows be the punchline for New Zealand jokes for a while.When the headline "NZ council waiting for answer on Woolnorth" appeared in the Examiner on 16 January this year I remember thinking, WHAT? A local council buying a dairy farm? In another country?They must do things differently in New Zealand; I wonder what Tasmanian ratepayers would think about the HCC going off and buying, say, a coffee plantation in New Guinea? Read more »
One aspect of current received wisdom is that Brendan Nelson is only filling the chair as opposition leader until the conservatives have regrouped. Once that is done, the "real" leader will emerge to take the party forward.I have some sympathy with this view if nothing else because of history: new opposition leaders who take over after losing government have a terrible record at winning government back again. Think Kim Beasley, Bill Sneddon or Andrew Peacock. Read more »
Well, maybe not, but it is certainly true that since JW Howard became prime minister in 1996, the conservatives in Australia have consistently lost seats. In 1996 the coalition held 60% of all seats in the country - by 2007 it was only 40%. More on this later. Read more »
Well, the inevitable happened and there was a summer reshuffle in the government. Go here to see the premier's media release and a list of the new ministries. Read more »
From state election to election in Tasmania there are very few occasions when at least one sitting member does not retire. Under our Hare Clark system casual vacancies are filled not by a by-election but by a recount of the voting papers from the last election for the retiring member. Only those losing candidates that nominate at the time of the recount are eligible. For those interested in the workings find out more at the Parliamentary Library and the Tasmanian Electoral Commission sites - see the links in the side bar on the right. Read more »
Well, if he's a politician, it turns to leadership challenges. And that goes for women to.State parliaments have finished for the year and the federal election is done and dusted. The public's collective mind is now off politics and on to cricket, the beach and Christmas.So for pollies this is the perfect time to sharpen the knives ... Let's count 'em up over the past few days: Read more »
No, it's not from me.If you only read one pre-election summary, read Dr Kevin Bonham's over at Tasmanian Times. Erudite, comprehensive and insightful. Do yourself a favour and read it.Kevin predicts 87 Labor seats, I think 85 (scroll down for more details of my prediction.) So we are close enough not to materially disagree; we will all know soon enough. Read more »
The Australian Electoral Commission has released a very handy spreadsheet of all the candidates in this year's election.Way too much information for most of us. Includes home phone numbers, where provided, work numbers and emails. One candidate in Lyons gives a contact email at New Norfolk Mitre 10! I'm not sure his employer would be too happy about that.Anyway, go here for the full lists. Read more »
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